Championship predictions

So after being wrong on all four of my predictions last week I was considering not making predictions this week, but I figure I'm due to be right by now. To review last week, I failed to recognize that Joe Flacco is a pretty mediocre playoff qb, at least against good defenses, and underestimated Pittsburgh's defense. I went against my gut feeling and picked the Patriots, which was the logical choice on paper. I assumed Atlanta's defense wasn't going to suck balls and that the Falcons would be able to keep it close and pull out the win. And I overthought the Chicago- Seattle game, underestimating a clearly superior Chicago team. So knowing what I know now lets see if I can get it right this week:

Green Bay (12-6) at Chicago (12-5):
The rubber matchup between the NFL's oldest rivals looks to favor the Green Bay Packers. You have Aaron Rodgers playing out of his mind, a terrific defense that has been forcing turnovers going up against Jay Cutler who played a pretty good game against Seattle, but who is inconsistent and led the Bears to 3 points the last time he faced the Pack. And while even now I don't have total faith in Cutler I do have faith that the combination of the miserable footing of Soldier field and da Bearsch defense will slow the Packers offense. To me the Packers rely on Aaron Rodgers to win and in the playoffs the quarterback can not carry you by himself to a Super Bowl championship. If you look at the best playoff performances by qbs, Joe Montana in '89, Troy Aikman in '92, and Steve Young in '94, all three had amazing teams, and solid running games. If you look at teams that rely on the qb, Peyton Manning, Dan Marino, Tom Brady, Kurt Warner, they all won super bowls only when their defense stepped up and make up for their poor play, and when they had to win by themselves, they lost. I think the Bears will shut down the run game and Aaron Rodgers will be decent, but not great. And while the Packer's defense has been great, I think it has been in large part because Rodgers has given them big leads, allowing them to play aggressively. And I think that Jay Cutler is beginning to become a better game manager, cutting down on turnovers like Romo did last year and he will take care of the ball and put up points. I think this is gonna be a low scoring, field position game, which is always to the benefit of Chicago with Devin Hester, and Chicago will win it.

Prediction: Chicago wins 23-17

New York Jets (13-5) at Pittsburgh (13-4):
Another rematch game here, one that the Jets won 22-17 a few weeks back. I really want to pick the Jets here, because they beat two great teams back to back and because I hate the Steelers, but I think this is gonna be different. Tying into what I was saying before about quarterbacks failing to win by themselves, the Patriots and Colts are two teams that fall into that category. The Patriots seemed to have a good defense, but really it seemed to be kind of a average defense that Belicheck was able to disguise and dress up during the regular season, that got exposed last week. So of course it came down to Brady, who really didn't have a run game to speak of (also dressed up by Belicheck) and the Jets planned well, and beat him. But the Steelers have a super bowl defense, without a doubt. And because of this fact Ben Rothlisberger is not going to have to press or force things to win. He will hand the ball off, and do what he does, make plays with his feet and with his arm. Its one thing to game plan against teams with passing games that rely on precision and route running, its another to game plan against a guy who stands in the pocket, shrugs off free blitzing linemen, and dances around until someone gets open. On the other side of the ball, the Jets have had success when they run the ball, and they won't be able to against the Steelers. So it will come down to Mark Sanchez. And while Sanchez has had success in the playoffs, he has never faced a defense like the Steelers and has never had to win a playoff game by himself. And if Joe Flacco can't beat the Steelers, no way Mark Sanchez does.

Prediction: Steelers win 20-6