So after being wrong on all four of my predictions last week I was considering not making predictions this week, but I figure I'm due to be right by now. To review last week, I failed to recognize that Joe Flacco is a pretty mediocre playoff qb, at least against good defenses, and underestimated Pittsburgh's defense. I went against my gut feeling and picked the Patriots, which was the logical choice on paper. I assumed Atlanta's defense wasn't going to suck balls and that the Falcons would be able to keep it close and pull out the win. And I overthought the Chicago- Seattle game, underestimating a clearly superior Chicago team. So knowing what I know now lets see if I can get it right this week:
Green Bay (12-6) at Chicago (12-5):
The rubber matchup between the NFL's oldest rivals looks to favor the Green Bay Packers. You have Aaron Rodgers playing out of his mind, a terrific defense that has been forcing turnovers going up against Jay Cutler who played a pretty good game against Seattle, but who is inconsistent and led the Bears to 3 points the last time he faced the Pack. And while even now I don't have total faith in Cutler I do have faith that the combination of the miserable footing of Soldier field and da Bearsch defense will slow the Packers offense. To me the Packers rely on Aaron Rodgers to win and in the playoffs the quarterback can not carry you by himself to a Super Bowl championship. If you look at the best playoff performances by qbs, Joe Montana in '89, Troy Aikman in '92, and Steve Young in '94, all three had amazing teams, and solid running games. If you look at teams that rely on the qb, Peyton Manning, Dan Marino, Tom Brady, Kurt Warner, they all won super bowls only when their defense stepped up and make up for their poor play, and when they had to win by themselves, they lost. I think the Bears will shut down the run game and Aaron Rodgers will be decent, but not great. And while the Packer's defense has been great, I think it has been in large part because Rodgers has given them big leads, allowing them to play aggressively. And I think that Jay Cutler is beginning to become a better game manager, cutting down on turnovers like Romo did last year and he will take care of the ball and put up points. I think this is gonna be a low scoring, field position game, which is always to the benefit of Chicago with Devin Hester, and Chicago will win it.
Prediction: Chicago wins 23-17
New York Jets (13-5) at Pittsburgh (13-4):
Another rematch game here, one that the Jets won 22-17 a few weeks back. I really want to pick the Jets here, because they beat two great teams back to back and because I hate the Steelers, but I think this is gonna be different. Tying into what I was saying before about quarterbacks failing to win by themselves, the Patriots and Colts are two teams that fall into that category. The Patriots seemed to have a good defense, but really it seemed to be kind of a average defense that Belicheck was able to disguise and dress up during the regular season, that got exposed last week. So of course it came down to Brady, who really didn't have a run game to speak of (also dressed up by Belicheck) and the Jets planned well, and beat him. But the Steelers have a super bowl defense, without a doubt. And because of this fact Ben Rothlisberger is not going to have to press or force things to win. He will hand the ball off, and do what he does, make plays with his feet and with his arm. Its one thing to game plan against teams with passing games that rely on precision and route running, its another to game plan against a guy who stands in the pocket, shrugs off free blitzing linemen, and dances around until someone gets open. On the other side of the ball, the Jets have had success when they run the ball, and they won't be able to against the Steelers. So it will come down to Mark Sanchez. And while Sanchez has had success in the playoffs, he has never faced a defense like the Steelers and has never had to win a playoff game by himself. And if Joe Flacco can't beat the Steelers, no way Mark Sanchez does.
Prediction: Steelers win 20-6
Sunday, January 23, 2011
Tuesday, January 11, 2011
Divisional round picks
So last week I went 2-2 with my predictions, coming pretty close in the score of the Baltimore game and not that close in the Green Bay game. I didn't know Matt Hasselback was going to start for Seattle so that may have changed my prediction a little in terms of the score, though I probably still would've pick New Orleans. And I underestimated the Jets running game against the Colts. Also looking back I realized my predictions were kind of lame and predictable, which saddened me. So this week I think I will go a little more for broke....
Seattle (8-9) at Chicago (11-5)
So once again Seattle is playing a team with a much better record and is expected to lose by double digits. Last week they were able to shock the defending super bowl champs, but it was in Seattle where the Seahawks have a huge advantage (its amazing how many false starts the crowd causes). Chicago has one of the best defenses in the NFL and finally has a pretty good looking offense and maybe their best quarterback since Sid Luckman. And by now you probably know Seattle's story. But I'm gonna go with Seattle even on the road and I will give you several reasons. The first is a simple mathematical equation: Matt Hasselback> Jay Cutler. I probably wouldn't have picked Seattle last week even if I knew Hasselback was playing, but I would've called it closer, because he is a good quarterback, one of the more underrated qbs of this era. And while he had a pretty bad regular season he looked about as good as I've seen any qb last week, and he has had success in the playoffs before. Jay Cutler on the other hand seems to be one of those quarterbacks that I will never believe in, no matter how good he seems at points, like Eli Manning. The guy I always compare him to is Jeff George, very talented, great arm, puts up good numbers, thinks he's the shit, but will never be as good as he or his fans think he will be. Also he's never played in a playoff game. But a big reason I like Seattle is because of their season trajectory. Now Seattle started off the season well (4-2) and then basically collapsed for the rest of the season (2-7). Now you might notice I didn't count the last game as part of the season, and thats because their game against the Rams was a playoff game for all intents and purposes: winner goes on, loser's out. But Seattle had the experience of being a bad team, THIS SEASON. They lost their last 3 games (before St Louis) by more than 2 touchdowns each, almost eliminating themselves from the playoffs. And you know a team of veterans like Hasselback, Walter Jones, Raheem Brock, and Lawer Milloy hate going through losing seasons. In fact I would argue they hate losing more than they love winning. Plus these are all guys who have been to the top and want to get back, so they suffer through basically a shitty season like they did and the last game of the season they have a chance to make the playoffs and turn a mediocre season into a success, and they have jumped at the chance. Its like the opposite of the 2007 Pats, who beat the shit out of everyone through like 10 games and then down the stretch were squeaking out every win against mediocre teams. By the time the playoffs came they were just begging for someone to beat them. I think Seattle will come out hungrier and pull off the win. Oh and they beat da bearsch during the regular season IN CHICAGO. Go figure.
Prediction: Seattle 20-13
Baltimore (12-4) at Pittsburgh (12-4)
Even though I don't know what will happen in the rest of the playoffs and which teams will end up playing, I will make the claim that this will be the best game of football in the 2011 NFL playoffs. These teams are so similar, so well matched its awesome. I think I would actually be disappointed if it didn't come down to the wire. You have two 12-4 teams with strong running games, young talented quarterbacks with playoff experience, and two of the best defenses in the NFL. Two teams that split the season series with each game being decided by a field goal. Now on paper the important matchup of quarterbacks seems to favor Pittsburgh. Rothlisberger has had a lot of success in the playoffs, and Flacco hasn't really done anything. Or at least he hadn't until last week. And that's the thing, I think the reason Baltimore can win this time is because Flacco has evolved as a passer, and also he has a plethora of receiving options, 3 solid receivers, a great receiving tight end in Todd Heap (who did not play in Pittsburgh's win over Baltimore), and one of the best receiving backs in the league in Ray Rice. Rothlisberger has a good set of receivers as well, and Mike Wallace's speed could be a deciding factor in the game. However if he's not a deep threat, he's kind of useless, and having a useless #2 receiving is not a good thing. In general I think both teams will be able to stop the run game so it will come down to which passing attack does better. And Baltimore is at the top of their game after cruising by KC, while Pittsburgh has been off for a week. I think Baltimore will get off to a lead early and hold of the Steelers.
Predictions: Baltimore 24-19
Green Bay (11-6) at Atlanta (13-3)
This is one is tough for me to call. Two teams that played each other early in the year, in Atlanta, in a game that Atlanta won by a field goal. But this is a different Packers team coming in. Fresh off a wild card victory in Philadelphia, the Packers have won 3 straight over 3 of the best teams in the NFC. If they beat Atlanta they'll probably have knocked off the 3 best teams in back to back to back weeks. The match-up between Matt Ryan and Aaron Rodgers is one I am looking forward to: two young quarterbacks that seem to be ready to take the next step to moving into the Brady, Brees, Manning talk. Part of me wants to pick the Packers: they are hot right now, Rodgers is on a roll, they have a good running back for the first time this season and their defense was good at containing Vick last week. But I will have to pick Atlanta for the simple reason that I like Matty Ice in the clutch more than Aaron Rodgers. Its not that Aaron Rodgers seems to have a problem in the clutch, but it just seems like he hasn't pulled out any particularly awesome victories in the 4th quarter while Matt Ryan did nothing but pull off awesome victories this season, including against the Packers. I foresee a similar result to the game these two teams played earlier this season.
Prediction: Atlanta: 30-28
New York (12-5) at New England (14-2)
This is the match-up with probably the most media induced intrigue and hype, despite the fact that I don't think it will be a good a football game as Pittsburgh and Baltimore. You've got the classic matchup of the good guys: The Bill Belicheck led drama-less Patriots, where every single player speaks Beli-talk, saying the most politically correct, cliche-ridden things every time up against the bad boy, Rex Ryan run Jets who outwardly hate the Patriots, and use every opportunity given by the media to emphasize that point. Unlike most people in New England I actually think there is a method behind Rex Ryan's madness and that he has his players under more control than one might think. I think all these attacks through the media are attempts to tear down the mystic of the Patriots. Saying its between himself and Belicheck takes some pressure off of Ryan's players. Antonio Cromartie calling Tom Brady an asshole is just a way of and bringing down an All-everything, superhero quarterback to just some fucking asshole who you want to beat. Of course there's no doubt the Patriots will use this a bulletin board material and will come out ready to whup the Jets worse than their last game, but the Jets will be ready, and they will not fear the mighty Patriots. The reason I thought Indianapolis would win last week was I didn't think the Jets could run the ball well enough to take pressure off Mark Sanchez. Well I was wrong, and while they might not have quite as much success this week, they will have some. But as much as I'd like to pick the Jets in this one I'm gonna have to go with the Patriots. While Antonio Cromartie is an All-pro shit talker, he's not that great a corner, and I can see Deion Branch having a field day on him. I think the Jets will do alright on offense but they'll have to shut Tom Brady down to win this one. They will probably do more of a blitzy defense than last week, and if they blitz and have Cromartie jam his man, I think they have a chance because Cromartie is good only in bump and run and everyone knows Wes Welker isn't gonna do shit on Revis island (1 reception 1 yard from Reggie Wayne, come now). In that case it would come down to the two tight ends, who are talented and mismatches but are not meant to be go to guys. But I really don't see they Jets shutting down the Pats passing attack, Brady's just too good at spreading it around and unlike the Colts the Pats have a solid running game. If the Jets win I'm gonna hate myself but I'll say:
Prediction: Patriots 28-20
Seattle (8-9) at Chicago (11-5)
So once again Seattle is playing a team with a much better record and is expected to lose by double digits. Last week they were able to shock the defending super bowl champs, but it was in Seattle where the Seahawks have a huge advantage (its amazing how many false starts the crowd causes). Chicago has one of the best defenses in the NFL and finally has a pretty good looking offense and maybe their best quarterback since Sid Luckman. And by now you probably know Seattle's story. But I'm gonna go with Seattle even on the road and I will give you several reasons. The first is a simple mathematical equation: Matt Hasselback> Jay Cutler. I probably wouldn't have picked Seattle last week even if I knew Hasselback was playing, but I would've called it closer, because he is a good quarterback, one of the more underrated qbs of this era. And while he had a pretty bad regular season he looked about as good as I've seen any qb last week, and he has had success in the playoffs before. Jay Cutler on the other hand seems to be one of those quarterbacks that I will never believe in, no matter how good he seems at points, like Eli Manning. The guy I always compare him to is Jeff George, very talented, great arm, puts up good numbers, thinks he's the shit, but will never be as good as he or his fans think he will be. Also he's never played in a playoff game. But a big reason I like Seattle is because of their season trajectory. Now Seattle started off the season well (4-2) and then basically collapsed for the rest of the season (2-7). Now you might notice I didn't count the last game as part of the season, and thats because their game against the Rams was a playoff game for all intents and purposes: winner goes on, loser's out. But Seattle had the experience of being a bad team, THIS SEASON. They lost their last 3 games (before St Louis) by more than 2 touchdowns each, almost eliminating themselves from the playoffs. And you know a team of veterans like Hasselback, Walter Jones, Raheem Brock, and Lawer Milloy hate going through losing seasons. In fact I would argue they hate losing more than they love winning. Plus these are all guys who have been to the top and want to get back, so they suffer through basically a shitty season like they did and the last game of the season they have a chance to make the playoffs and turn a mediocre season into a success, and they have jumped at the chance. Its like the opposite of the 2007 Pats, who beat the shit out of everyone through like 10 games and then down the stretch were squeaking out every win against mediocre teams. By the time the playoffs came they were just begging for someone to beat them. I think Seattle will come out hungrier and pull off the win. Oh and they beat da bearsch during the regular season IN CHICAGO. Go figure.
Prediction: Seattle 20-13
Baltimore (12-4) at Pittsburgh (12-4)
Even though I don't know what will happen in the rest of the playoffs and which teams will end up playing, I will make the claim that this will be the best game of football in the 2011 NFL playoffs. These teams are so similar, so well matched its awesome. I think I would actually be disappointed if it didn't come down to the wire. You have two 12-4 teams with strong running games, young talented quarterbacks with playoff experience, and two of the best defenses in the NFL. Two teams that split the season series with each game being decided by a field goal. Now on paper the important matchup of quarterbacks seems to favor Pittsburgh. Rothlisberger has had a lot of success in the playoffs, and Flacco hasn't really done anything. Or at least he hadn't until last week. And that's the thing, I think the reason Baltimore can win this time is because Flacco has evolved as a passer, and also he has a plethora of receiving options, 3 solid receivers, a great receiving tight end in Todd Heap (who did not play in Pittsburgh's win over Baltimore), and one of the best receiving backs in the league in Ray Rice. Rothlisberger has a good set of receivers as well, and Mike Wallace's speed could be a deciding factor in the game. However if he's not a deep threat, he's kind of useless, and having a useless #2 receiving is not a good thing. In general I think both teams will be able to stop the run game so it will come down to which passing attack does better. And Baltimore is at the top of their game after cruising by KC, while Pittsburgh has been off for a week. I think Baltimore will get off to a lead early and hold of the Steelers.
Predictions: Baltimore 24-19
Green Bay (11-6) at Atlanta (13-3)
This is one is tough for me to call. Two teams that played each other early in the year, in Atlanta, in a game that Atlanta won by a field goal. But this is a different Packers team coming in. Fresh off a wild card victory in Philadelphia, the Packers have won 3 straight over 3 of the best teams in the NFC. If they beat Atlanta they'll probably have knocked off the 3 best teams in back to back to back weeks. The match-up between Matt Ryan and Aaron Rodgers is one I am looking forward to: two young quarterbacks that seem to be ready to take the next step to moving into the Brady, Brees, Manning talk. Part of me wants to pick the Packers: they are hot right now, Rodgers is on a roll, they have a good running back for the first time this season and their defense was good at containing Vick last week. But I will have to pick Atlanta for the simple reason that I like Matty Ice in the clutch more than Aaron Rodgers. Its not that Aaron Rodgers seems to have a problem in the clutch, but it just seems like he hasn't pulled out any particularly awesome victories in the 4th quarter while Matt Ryan did nothing but pull off awesome victories this season, including against the Packers. I foresee a similar result to the game these two teams played earlier this season.
Prediction: Atlanta: 30-28
New York (12-5) at New England (14-2)
This is the match-up with probably the most media induced intrigue and hype, despite the fact that I don't think it will be a good a football game as Pittsburgh and Baltimore. You've got the classic matchup of the good guys: The Bill Belicheck led drama-less Patriots, where every single player speaks Beli-talk, saying the most politically correct, cliche-ridden things every time up against the bad boy, Rex Ryan run Jets who outwardly hate the Patriots, and use every opportunity given by the media to emphasize that point. Unlike most people in New England I actually think there is a method behind Rex Ryan's madness and that he has his players under more control than one might think. I think all these attacks through the media are attempts to tear down the mystic of the Patriots. Saying its between himself and Belicheck takes some pressure off of Ryan's players. Antonio Cromartie calling Tom Brady an asshole is just a way of and bringing down an All-everything, superhero quarterback to just some fucking asshole who you want to beat. Of course there's no doubt the Patriots will use this a bulletin board material and will come out ready to whup the Jets worse than their last game, but the Jets will be ready, and they will not fear the mighty Patriots. The reason I thought Indianapolis would win last week was I didn't think the Jets could run the ball well enough to take pressure off Mark Sanchez. Well I was wrong, and while they might not have quite as much success this week, they will have some. But as much as I'd like to pick the Jets in this one I'm gonna have to go with the Patriots. While Antonio Cromartie is an All-pro shit talker, he's not that great a corner, and I can see Deion Branch having a field day on him. I think the Jets will do alright on offense but they'll have to shut Tom Brady down to win this one. They will probably do more of a blitzy defense than last week, and if they blitz and have Cromartie jam his man, I think they have a chance because Cromartie is good only in bump and run and everyone knows Wes Welker isn't gonna do shit on Revis island (1 reception 1 yard from Reggie Wayne, come now). In that case it would come down to the two tight ends, who are talented and mismatches but are not meant to be go to guys. But I really don't see they Jets shutting down the Pats passing attack, Brady's just too good at spreading it around and unlike the Colts the Pats have a solid running game. If the Jets win I'm gonna hate myself but I'll say:
Prediction: Patriots 28-20
Friday, January 7, 2011
Wild card weekend: predictions
So it is now playoff time, so it is time for some predictions for the first round. My prediction of the cowboys making the playoffs was a tad off, I was right that we'd play better, that the redskins would fail and the giants collapsing (though not the way I guessed) and off on the Eagles. And to be honest most of my predictions for NFL games tend to be off, whether during the playoffs, season or super bowl. But I'm still going to give my two cents just because I want to. So heres what I think about the early matchups:
New Orleans (11-5) at Seattle (7-9):
On paper this looks like an obvious one. You have the defending super bowl champion playing against the worst playoff team in NFL history (record wise but quite possibly talent wise too). This is one where I would love to pick an upset, the Saints lost their last game, they could be looking ahead to the Divisional round, and could take Seattle lightly, whereas Seattle probably realizes they are incredibly lucky just to be in the playoffs and is going to be playing loose and with nothing to lose. However I can't pick against Drew Brees against a team like Seattle. But I will say this, if Seattle manages to keep it close early on, their home field advantage could play a role. You could tell last week they fed off their fans, and if New Orleans doesn't put them away early they could be in for a dogfight. But all 9 of Seattle's losses have been by more than 15 points, including one to New Orleans. And I see this one going somewhat in the same direction, with the Saints jumping out to an early lead and the Seattle offense not being able to bring them back.
Prediction: Saints win 31-14
New York Jets (11-5) at Indianapolis (10-6):
The rematch of last year's AFC Championship game has a much different feel than last year's game. Last year the Jets came in win one of the most dominant defenses in the league and Peyton Manning came in after a typically awesome Peyton Manning year and leading a 14-2 Indianapolis squad. While record-wise the Jets are better this year and they do seem to have improved offensively, they are an inconsistent team and their are much more holes in their defense. On one hand they've had impressive victories early on against the Patriots (despite losing Darelle Revis) and a few weeks ago against the Steelers. But then there was the infamous shellacking to the Patriots the second time around and a loss to Chicago two weeks ago where the defense gave up 38 points. The Colts come in winners of 4 straight and as division champion, and Peyton with statistically another stellar season, but there are also more flaws in the 2010 addition of the Indy Colts. There last 4 games have all been close to teams like tennessee and oakland despite the fact that they have all been must wins. And while Peyton's main stats look solid, under the surface he has had a difficult year. While last year the colts had little running game, this year they had even less of it, with Peyton having to throw the ball 679 times, 13 short of the record, and over 42 times a game. Just by that you can see how it would be hard to win games, even with Peyton Manning, when the defense knows you will throw the ball that often. Early in the season Manning lost his leading receiver from last year (Dallas Clark) and he lost his number 3 receiver, Austin Collie for 7 games. Also, Manning's average yard per attempt was the lowest since his rookie year, and his average yard per completion was his lowest ever. While this many seem irrelevant, these number suggest that the Colts have had a harder time getting yardage when they throw the ball, which can be frustrating especially to a player as good as Manning who is used to picking yards in bunches when he puts the ball in the air. Because of the inconsistencies of both teams, it is hard to pick this one. The Colts are vulnerable on defense and Peyton Manning seems suddenly beatable. Plus there's the fact that all super bowl losers decline severely the next year (at least in the last 12 years or so). But the Jets just don't do it for me. Mark Sanchez still is an average quarterback at best, and their running game is pretty bad. Besides Joe McKnight's incredible performance in mop-up duty last week, they haven't had a 100 yard back since week 5. Plus Peyton really does seem to consistently dominate some teams or coordinators and suck against others, and Rex Ryan is one that he does well against. So as much as I don't want to, I will go with the Colts:
Prediction: Colts win 21-10
Baltimore Ravens (12-4) at Kansas City (10-6)
Here's a game that pits the new guys on the block Chiefs against the playoff regular Ravens. The Chief easily the most surprising team to make the playoffs in the AFC, winning the division with the NFL's top running attack, solid play from quarterback Matt Cassel and great production from receiver Dwayne Bowe. The Ravens come in with a more balanced team than last year, with 3rd year QB Joe Flacco starting to come into his own with a improved receiving core, a solid run game with ray rice and as usual a dominating defense. In this one I think its important to look at both teams schedules. Baltimore lost 4 games, 3 of which were to New England, Pittsburgh, and Atlanta (arguable the 3 best teams in the NFL) by a combination of 11 points. They also beat playoff teams New Orleans, New York, and Pittsburgh. Kansas City on the other hand, played only two playoff teams, losing to Indianapolis and defeating Seattle and finishing the season by getting crushed by Oakland 31-10 in a game that would've given them the 3 seed. I think the only way to beat the Ravens is to throw the ball on them, which I don't think the Chiefs will be able to do, because while Matt Cassel has had an impressive season, that has been against weaker opponents who haven't been able to stop the Chiefs running game. Baltimore will be able to hold the Chiefs running game and check and make Cassel beat them. And while the Chiefs defense is probably underrated, they will not be able to win a defensive struggle with the battle tested Ravens. But as with Seattle, it is important to take home field advantage into account, and once again, if the Chiefs can get out to a good start they will have a chance. But I just can't see Cassel picking apart the Ravens.
Prediction: Ravens win 24-7
Green Bay Packers (10-6) at Philadelphia Eagles (10-6)
This is probably the game I will be most interested in on wildcard weekend. It features two teams heading into the playoffs seemingly going in opposite directions, the Eagles losing two straight games to underachieving teams (the vikings and the COWBOYS YEE YEE), while the Packers come in having won two straight against quality opponents (the Giants and the Bears). And despite a slew of major injuries the Packers come into the playoffs as one of the hottest teams while the Eagles come in with a lot of question marks. The number one question mark has been the offensive line, which left Michael Vick and Kevin Kolb
to be pummeled the last two weeks. When these teams met in week one the Packers knocked out Kevin Kolb (which turned out pretty well for philly) and sacked Kolb and Vick 6 times. I see no reason why they shouldn't be able to get pressure on Vick this game. And while Vick may still be able to manufacture offense, I don't think he'll be able to keep up with the Packer's powerful offense which should have little problem scoring points against a Eagles defense that gives up 23 points a game.
Prediction: Packers win 35-24
New Orleans (11-5) at Seattle (7-9):
On paper this looks like an obvious one. You have the defending super bowl champion playing against the worst playoff team in NFL history (record wise but quite possibly talent wise too). This is one where I would love to pick an upset, the Saints lost their last game, they could be looking ahead to the Divisional round, and could take Seattle lightly, whereas Seattle probably realizes they are incredibly lucky just to be in the playoffs and is going to be playing loose and with nothing to lose. However I can't pick against Drew Brees against a team like Seattle. But I will say this, if Seattle manages to keep it close early on, their home field advantage could play a role. You could tell last week they fed off their fans, and if New Orleans doesn't put them away early they could be in for a dogfight. But all 9 of Seattle's losses have been by more than 15 points, including one to New Orleans. And I see this one going somewhat in the same direction, with the Saints jumping out to an early lead and the Seattle offense not being able to bring them back.
Prediction: Saints win 31-14
New York Jets (11-5) at Indianapolis (10-6):
The rematch of last year's AFC Championship game has a much different feel than last year's game. Last year the Jets came in win one of the most dominant defenses in the league and Peyton Manning came in after a typically awesome Peyton Manning year and leading a 14-2 Indianapolis squad. While record-wise the Jets are better this year and they do seem to have improved offensively, they are an inconsistent team and their are much more holes in their defense. On one hand they've had impressive victories early on against the Patriots (despite losing Darelle Revis) and a few weeks ago against the Steelers. But then there was the infamous shellacking to the Patriots the second time around and a loss to Chicago two weeks ago where the defense gave up 38 points. The Colts come in winners of 4 straight and as division champion, and Peyton with statistically another stellar season, but there are also more flaws in the 2010 addition of the Indy Colts. There last 4 games have all been close to teams like tennessee and oakland despite the fact that they have all been must wins. And while Peyton's main stats look solid, under the surface he has had a difficult year. While last year the colts had little running game, this year they had even less of it, with Peyton having to throw the ball 679 times, 13 short of the record, and over 42 times a game. Just by that you can see how it would be hard to win games, even with Peyton Manning, when the defense knows you will throw the ball that often. Early in the season Manning lost his leading receiver from last year (Dallas Clark) and he lost his number 3 receiver, Austin Collie for 7 games. Also, Manning's average yard per attempt was the lowest since his rookie year, and his average yard per completion was his lowest ever. While this many seem irrelevant, these number suggest that the Colts have had a harder time getting yardage when they throw the ball, which can be frustrating especially to a player as good as Manning who is used to picking yards in bunches when he puts the ball in the air. Because of the inconsistencies of both teams, it is hard to pick this one. The Colts are vulnerable on defense and Peyton Manning seems suddenly beatable. Plus there's the fact that all super bowl losers decline severely the next year (at least in the last 12 years or so). But the Jets just don't do it for me. Mark Sanchez still is an average quarterback at best, and their running game is pretty bad. Besides Joe McKnight's incredible performance in mop-up duty last week, they haven't had a 100 yard back since week 5. Plus Peyton really does seem to consistently dominate some teams or coordinators and suck against others, and Rex Ryan is one that he does well against. So as much as I don't want to, I will go with the Colts:
Prediction: Colts win 21-10
Baltimore Ravens (12-4) at Kansas City (10-6)
Here's a game that pits the new guys on the block Chiefs against the playoff regular Ravens. The Chief easily the most surprising team to make the playoffs in the AFC, winning the division with the NFL's top running attack, solid play from quarterback Matt Cassel and great production from receiver Dwayne Bowe. The Ravens come in with a more balanced team than last year, with 3rd year QB Joe Flacco starting to come into his own with a improved receiving core, a solid run game with ray rice and as usual a dominating defense. In this one I think its important to look at both teams schedules. Baltimore lost 4 games, 3 of which were to New England, Pittsburgh, and Atlanta (arguable the 3 best teams in the NFL) by a combination of 11 points. They also beat playoff teams New Orleans, New York, and Pittsburgh. Kansas City on the other hand, played only two playoff teams, losing to Indianapolis and defeating Seattle and finishing the season by getting crushed by Oakland 31-10 in a game that would've given them the 3 seed. I think the only way to beat the Ravens is to throw the ball on them, which I don't think the Chiefs will be able to do, because while Matt Cassel has had an impressive season, that has been against weaker opponents who haven't been able to stop the Chiefs running game. Baltimore will be able to hold the Chiefs running game and check and make Cassel beat them. And while the Chiefs defense is probably underrated, they will not be able to win a defensive struggle with the battle tested Ravens. But as with Seattle, it is important to take home field advantage into account, and once again, if the Chiefs can get out to a good start they will have a chance. But I just can't see Cassel picking apart the Ravens.
Prediction: Ravens win 24-7
Green Bay Packers (10-6) at Philadelphia Eagles (10-6)
This is probably the game I will be most interested in on wildcard weekend. It features two teams heading into the playoffs seemingly going in opposite directions, the Eagles losing two straight games to underachieving teams (the vikings and the COWBOYS YEE YEE), while the Packers come in having won two straight against quality opponents (the Giants and the Bears). And despite a slew of major injuries the Packers come into the playoffs as one of the hottest teams while the Eagles come in with a lot of question marks. The number one question mark has been the offensive line, which left Michael Vick and Kevin Kolb
to be pummeled the last two weeks. When these teams met in week one the Packers knocked out Kevin Kolb (which turned out pretty well for philly) and sacked Kolb and Vick 6 times. I see no reason why they shouldn't be able to get pressure on Vick this game. And while Vick may still be able to manufacture offense, I don't think he'll be able to keep up with the Packer's powerful offense which should have little problem scoring points against a Eagles defense that gives up 23 points a game.
Prediction: Packers win 35-24
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