@bwareofdware Fully expect them to add someone. Kevin Ogletree is awful.
— Mike Clay (@MikeClayNFL) August 13, 2012
Sunday, September 9, 2012
Mike Clay: Kevin Ogletree
Not gonna lie, when he sent me this I agreed with him. Shows how much we both know....
Sunday, September 18, 2011
Romo has the heart of a champion and Jesse Holley: the "Rudy" of the NFL
So now that I can reflect on the thrilling game I witnessed, I can honestly say that as a football fan and not a Dallas Cowboy fan, Tony Romo's performance was one of the gutsiest I've ever seen. Because this game was only the second game of the season you can't rank it up with Emmitt Smith against the Giants in '93 when he played through a dislocated shoulder to help win the game and clinch the division. Still, while this wasn't necessarily a must win, it was pretty close: starting out 0-2 with the not so pathetic Redskins, scorching Lions and Patriots coming up would be terrible. Let's revisit the chain of events: Romo takes a vicious blind-side hit because, surprise, our offensive line still sucks. Romo looks shaken but returns and throws a TD to Miles to make it a 1-TD game going into halftime. We find out Romo isn't starting, then that he has a cracked rib and WILL NOT RETURN. Jon Kitna comes it and looks good at points, but allows the 49ers to grab the momentum and seemingly take control of the game. At this point Romo says fuck it "I put the team on my back doh" and does just that. Playing behind a inexperienced line, without dezzy, oh and a running game, he takes the game to overtime where he then wins it with Jesse Holley's long reception. Say what you want about Romo but the man has guts straight up. People forget, but at the end of that terrible '08 season he was playing hurt which probably caused his decline in play. In this era of babying quarterbacks, and football players in general, it's refreshing to see a player play through pain. Everyone remembers the Chicago-Green Bay championship game where Jay Cutler got hurt and just sat on the sideline for the rest of the game, letting the third string QB try to take his team to the super bowl. As a student at the University of Texas I remember the Championship game in '09 when Colt McCoy got hit and rather than at least try to go out and win the game, sat on the sideline and watched his freshman back-up try to win. Though sometimes he frustrates me, Romo's performance today made me proud to have him as our quarterback.
On another note, for people who wonder why Jesse Holley was so exuberant after his 77 yard play in overtime, you need to know a little bit about him. It's said that when you make a big play you should act like you've been there before. Well the fact is, Jesse Holley has not only never been "there" he's never been close. He was undrafted out of college, signed with the Bengals, then was cut, then went to the Canadian football league before getting a spot on Michael Irvin's reality show "4th and long." In a competition between 6 cornerback and 6 wideouts, he beat all the contestants to earn an INVITATION to Cowboys training camp. Yes that's just an invitation, not a spot on the team. The guy signed with the Cowboys after he ran back a punt for a TD in preseason, then got cut but signed back on the practice squad. The next year he was CUT AGAIN, and again signed with the practice squad before being promoted to the active squad as a special teams guy. Then this off-season he faced some stiff competition for the fifth wideout spot but managed to win the job. Fifth receiver doesn't get much playing time, but with dezzy dizzle out with a quad injury, Jesse was 4th. In a move of uncanny intuition, Tony Romo pulled Holley to the side before a drive and basically told him, you need to step up. On the game-tying drive Romo hits Holley twice, for intermediate gains on well-run routes. But Holley's momement of glory came on the first play of the Cowboys offensive possession of OT, when he jogged upfield as if to block and then ran behind the entire 49ers defense to haul in a Romo pass and run 77 yards to the 1-yardline. It's true the whole sticking the ball up in the air was a bonehead move and could've fucked him and the Cowboys over, but for a guy who faced obstacle after obstacle to get in that position, can you blame him? You couldn't script a better story of redemption. Literally. I think Holley's story is more compelling than Rudy Ruettiger or Vince Papale, two guys who got moves made after them.
The funny thing about this season is that if going into the season someone told me we would lose to the Jets 24-27 I would say "Oh well that's not a bad loss, they'e a good team" and beat the 49ers 27-24 I would say "How did we only beat the 49ers by three points?" But it's the way that outcome is reached that creates that final feeling stemming from that game, which explains why last week's loss was so sickening and this week's was so glorious. Romo will probably be out for a couple weeks, hopefully he will be ready after the bye, so the next couple games will be the ultimate test for our team. One thing is for certain, we need help from our running game. Today's performance was dreadful, and I'm starting to think Demarco Murray may be a better option than Felix Jones, Felix looks so slow in his cuts and hitting the hole. Our defense wasn't great today, but I do love the way we rush the passer under Rob Ryan. Once we get our corners back, we should be solid on D. One of the commentators said that everything in Dallas is magnified by 10, the good and the bad. That's probably true, this week's victory doesn't mean we're going to win the super bowl, just as our week one loss didn't mean we should cut everyone and start our team from scratch. But as fan it is reasonable to feel better about your team when they win, than when they lose.
On another note, for people who wonder why Jesse Holley was so exuberant after his 77 yard play in overtime, you need to know a little bit about him. It's said that when you make a big play you should act like you've been there before. Well the fact is, Jesse Holley has not only never been "there" he's never been close. He was undrafted out of college, signed with the Bengals, then was cut, then went to the Canadian football league before getting a spot on Michael Irvin's reality show "4th and long." In a competition between 6 cornerback and 6 wideouts, he beat all the contestants to earn an INVITATION to Cowboys training camp. Yes that's just an invitation, not a spot on the team. The guy signed with the Cowboys after he ran back a punt for a TD in preseason, then got cut but signed back on the practice squad. The next year he was CUT AGAIN, and again signed with the practice squad before being promoted to the active squad as a special teams guy. Then this off-season he faced some stiff competition for the fifth wideout spot but managed to win the job. Fifth receiver doesn't get much playing time, but with dezzy dizzle out with a quad injury, Jesse was 4th. In a move of uncanny intuition, Tony Romo pulled Holley to the side before a drive and basically told him, you need to step up. On the game-tying drive Romo hits Holley twice, for intermediate gains on well-run routes. But Holley's momement of glory came on the first play of the Cowboys offensive possession of OT, when he jogged upfield as if to block and then ran behind the entire 49ers defense to haul in a Romo pass and run 77 yards to the 1-yardline. It's true the whole sticking the ball up in the air was a bonehead move and could've fucked him and the Cowboys over, but for a guy who faced obstacle after obstacle to get in that position, can you blame him? You couldn't script a better story of redemption. Literally. I think Holley's story is more compelling than Rudy Ruettiger or Vince Papale, two guys who got moves made after them.
The funny thing about this season is that if going into the season someone told me we would lose to the Jets 24-27 I would say "Oh well that's not a bad loss, they'e a good team" and beat the 49ers 27-24 I would say "How did we only beat the 49ers by three points?" But it's the way that outcome is reached that creates that final feeling stemming from that game, which explains why last week's loss was so sickening and this week's was so glorious. Romo will probably be out for a couple weeks, hopefully he will be ready after the bye, so the next couple games will be the ultimate test for our team. One thing is for certain, we need help from our running game. Today's performance was dreadful, and I'm starting to think Demarco Murray may be a better option than Felix Jones, Felix looks so slow in his cuts and hitting the hole. Our defense wasn't great today, but I do love the way we rush the passer under Rob Ryan. Once we get our corners back, we should be solid on D. One of the commentators said that everything in Dallas is magnified by 10, the good and the bad. That's probably true, this week's victory doesn't mean we're going to win the super bowl, just as our week one loss didn't mean we should cut everyone and start our team from scratch. But as fan it is reasonable to feel better about your team when they win, than when they lose.
Monday, February 7, 2011
Super Bowl thoughts
So after a postseason of terrible picks, I finally came close to calling one perfectly in the super bowl. I was one Pittsburgh miscue on 3rd down (the play they got their 3rd touchdown of the game) and a Shaun Suisham field goal away from being spot on with the score, but I came close at least. As I expected, and as they have all postseason, the Packers came out throwing, and came out scoring, going up 21-3. And while part of me was hoping they could just utterly demolish the Steelers, I knew Pittsburgh was too good to go down without a fight. So of course they came back cutting it to 21-17 and moving the ball. Then two huge plays happened that turned the game back around. First, off a play action where once again he had all day to throw, Rothlisberger overthrew speedster Mike Wallace, who had beaten his man and would've had a touchdown. Then soon after that, to start the 4th quarter I believe, Clay Matthews drilled Rashard Mendenhall perfectly to force a fumble that gave the Packers the ball. After that, Rodgers continued to gouge the Steeler defense, despite numerous drops from receivers, hitting Jordy Nelson on a big 3rd down play, and "I put the team on my back tho" for the touchdown. From then on the Packers were able to withstand a Pittsburgh rally, ending with a 4th down incompletion. Great game by Rodgers, as anyone could see he should have had better numbers, anyone who says Jordy Nelson deserved MVP should be reminded that he could've had 200 yards if he caught all three of the balls that hit his hands/chest and bounced off. While he was sacked by James Fucking Harrison (first team all-pro despite 4.5 less sacks than d-ware, I call bullshit), in general the Packers line was great, especially since they threw it over 75% of the time, like I hoped they would. On offense, Rothlisberger did his thing, but the Packers did theirs too, picking him off twice. And because of the early lead, the Pittsburgh running game was not much of a factor.
In general what I take from this game is that Aaron Rodgers is an awesome quarterback and the Packers will be a force to be reckoned with for years to come. I thought they would lose to Chicago because I knew Rodgers would have a bad game and didn't think the defense could win it, but they also have a terrific defense, great secondary and pass rush (take notes on how their d-linemen get pressure Rob Ryan). Also its a very young team, and lets not forget they get Ryan Grant and Jermichael Finley back next year, which is going to make that offense ridiculous. It may be a little early to call, the Cowboys have a lot of offseason work, but if all goes to plan and the 'Boys play the way I know they can, we could be seeing a return to Cowboys stadium come playoff time next year. On the other side of things, I think the only thing that made me happier than the Steelers losing a super bowl in our home stadium, was the fact that EVERY SUPER BOWL LOSER SUCKS THE NEXT YEAR. Thats not entirely true, but since the 2000 super bowl the Titans lost and came back 13-3 (although they lost in the divisional round), every team that has lost has collapsed the next year. The most notorious were: the Rams losing to New England and after 3 years of total dominace, going like 6-10 the next year, the Raiders losing to Tampa Bay and I don't think they've gone .500 since, the Eagles losing to the Pats and missing the playoffs the next year. And more recently, you look at two teams that totally dominated the 00s, the Patriots and the Colts, who didn't completely suck the year after but by their standards they did, with the Patriots missing the playoffs and the Colts barely winning the division and getting bounced in wild-card weekend this year. And while I'm not as well versed in college football history, the last two National Championship losers, OU and The University of Texas at Austin did terrible the next season. So, while the Steelers of Pittsburgh and their fans may expect to return to the Super Bowl next year, as an outside observer I would not count on it.
In general what I take from this game is that Aaron Rodgers is an awesome quarterback and the Packers will be a force to be reckoned with for years to come. I thought they would lose to Chicago because I knew Rodgers would have a bad game and didn't think the defense could win it, but they also have a terrific defense, great secondary and pass rush (take notes on how their d-linemen get pressure Rob Ryan). Also its a very young team, and lets not forget they get Ryan Grant and Jermichael Finley back next year, which is going to make that offense ridiculous. It may be a little early to call, the Cowboys have a lot of offseason work, but if all goes to plan and the 'Boys play the way I know they can, we could be seeing a return to Cowboys stadium come playoff time next year. On the other side of things, I think the only thing that made me happier than the Steelers losing a super bowl in our home stadium, was the fact that EVERY SUPER BOWL LOSER SUCKS THE NEXT YEAR. Thats not entirely true, but since the 2000 super bowl the Titans lost and came back 13-3 (although they lost in the divisional round), every team that has lost has collapsed the next year. The most notorious were: the Rams losing to New England and after 3 years of total dominace, going like 6-10 the next year, the Raiders losing to Tampa Bay and I don't think they've gone .500 since, the Eagles losing to the Pats and missing the playoffs the next year. And more recently, you look at two teams that totally dominated the 00s, the Patriots and the Colts, who didn't completely suck the year after but by their standards they did, with the Patriots missing the playoffs and the Colts barely winning the division and getting bounced in wild-card weekend this year. And while I'm not as well versed in college football history, the last two National Championship losers, OU and The University of Texas at Austin did terrible the next season. So, while the Steelers of Pittsburgh and their fans may expect to return to the Super Bowl next year, as an outside observer I would not count on it.
Sunday, February 6, 2011
Super Bowl Picks
So after splitting my picks for the championships I am now 3-7 in my predictions for the 2011 playoffs. And while so far my predictions have been off, I think that I now know enough to make an accurate prediction for this game. Plus I'm due.
Super Bowl XLV: Pittsburgh vs Green Bay
Two of the most storied franchises in NFL history meet in Dallas for this year's installment of the super bowl. You have a team in Pittsburgh that won 2 of the last 5 super bowls, and Green Bay who has like 2 players who ever played in a super bowl. And if you look back, teams that win a couple super bowls tend to keep winning when they return. The steelers in the 70s, 49ers in the 80s, cowboys in the 90s all never lost. But New England may have set a new trend by losing in '07 after winning 3 super bowls. And I think the steelers will follow a similar path with today's game. Looking back at last week, I was actually right about the packers, I expected Rodgers to suck it up in an outdoor game, and like I said before, teams never win solely on quarterback play. But I underestimated the packers defense, and vastly underestimated Jay Culter's propensity to suck in big games and be a pussy. After really 5 playoff games (the Giants and Bears in the regular season were essentially playoff games) I'm sold on the Packer's D. And while I think Pittsburgh presents different challenges than any other offense the Packers faced so far, namely Rothliberger's ability to extend plays, I don't think they are better than the Eagles or Falcons offensively, two teams the Packer's contained. The key will be how Green Bay stops Mendenhall, because without the play-action at their disposal, the Steelers will not be able to throw against the Packers, they have a pretty phenomenal secondary and a great pass rush, that gets pressure from all over. On the other side of the ball, simply put the Steelers are a great defense and the packers are a talented offense. But while the Steelers are inpenetrable against the run, and the pass rush is great, their secondary can be exploited when isolated. Specifically, their corner's can be taken advantage of. So if the Packers just go all out, just throwing the ball from the gate, specifically throwing a lot of quick passes to minimize pass rush and take advantage of Rodger's pinpoint accuracy. The should run every once and a while just to keep the Steelers honest, but for the most part they should pass. And I think they will, because last time these teams played the Packers put it up 52 times I believe and they scored a lot. Last week the Jets were able to come back and almost knock off the Steelers because they could throw the ball on them. If your defense is getting burned by the Mark Sanchez-led Jets, you're probably gonna get scorched by the Packers. I see the Pack putting it up early and often, and Rodgers, back in the dome, will be on his game and move the ball consistently on the Steelers. And while Rothlisberger has his moments and I think Mendenhall will do well enough to set up play-action, the Packer's great secondary and pass rush will slow down the Steelers enough to get the win.
Prediction: Packers win 31-20
Super Bowl XLV: Pittsburgh vs Green Bay
Two of the most storied franchises in NFL history meet in Dallas for this year's installment of the super bowl. You have a team in Pittsburgh that won 2 of the last 5 super bowls, and Green Bay who has like 2 players who ever played in a super bowl. And if you look back, teams that win a couple super bowls tend to keep winning when they return. The steelers in the 70s, 49ers in the 80s, cowboys in the 90s all never lost. But New England may have set a new trend by losing in '07 after winning 3 super bowls. And I think the steelers will follow a similar path with today's game. Looking back at last week, I was actually right about the packers, I expected Rodgers to suck it up in an outdoor game, and like I said before, teams never win solely on quarterback play. But I underestimated the packers defense, and vastly underestimated Jay Culter's propensity to suck in big games and be a pussy. After really 5 playoff games (the Giants and Bears in the regular season were essentially playoff games) I'm sold on the Packer's D. And while I think Pittsburgh presents different challenges than any other offense the Packers faced so far, namely Rothliberger's ability to extend plays, I don't think they are better than the Eagles or Falcons offensively, two teams the Packer's contained. The key will be how Green Bay stops Mendenhall, because without the play-action at their disposal, the Steelers will not be able to throw against the Packers, they have a pretty phenomenal secondary and a great pass rush, that gets pressure from all over. On the other side of the ball, simply put the Steelers are a great defense and the packers are a talented offense. But while the Steelers are inpenetrable against the run, and the pass rush is great, their secondary can be exploited when isolated. Specifically, their corner's can be taken advantage of. So if the Packers just go all out, just throwing the ball from the gate, specifically throwing a lot of quick passes to minimize pass rush and take advantage of Rodger's pinpoint accuracy. The should run every once and a while just to keep the Steelers honest, but for the most part they should pass. And I think they will, because last time these teams played the Packers put it up 52 times I believe and they scored a lot. Last week the Jets were able to come back and almost knock off the Steelers because they could throw the ball on them. If your defense is getting burned by the Mark Sanchez-led Jets, you're probably gonna get scorched by the Packers. I see the Pack putting it up early and often, and Rodgers, back in the dome, will be on his game and move the ball consistently on the Steelers. And while Rothlisberger has his moments and I think Mendenhall will do well enough to set up play-action, the Packer's great secondary and pass rush will slow down the Steelers enough to get the win.
Prediction: Packers win 31-20
Sunday, January 23, 2011
Championship predictions
So after being wrong on all four of my predictions last week I was considering not making predictions this week, but I figure I'm due to be right by now. To review last week, I failed to recognize that Joe Flacco is a pretty mediocre playoff qb, at least against good defenses, and underestimated Pittsburgh's defense. I went against my gut feeling and picked the Patriots, which was the logical choice on paper. I assumed Atlanta's defense wasn't going to suck balls and that the Falcons would be able to keep it close and pull out the win. And I overthought the Chicago- Seattle game, underestimating a clearly superior Chicago team. So knowing what I know now lets see if I can get it right this week:
Green Bay (12-6) at Chicago (12-5):
The rubber matchup between the NFL's oldest rivals looks to favor the Green Bay Packers. You have Aaron Rodgers playing out of his mind, a terrific defense that has been forcing turnovers going up against Jay Cutler who played a pretty good game against Seattle, but who is inconsistent and led the Bears to 3 points the last time he faced the Pack. And while even now I don't have total faith in Cutler I do have faith that the combination of the miserable footing of Soldier field and da Bearsch defense will slow the Packers offense. To me the Packers rely on Aaron Rodgers to win and in the playoffs the quarterback can not carry you by himself to a Super Bowl championship. If you look at the best playoff performances by qbs, Joe Montana in '89, Troy Aikman in '92, and Steve Young in '94, all three had amazing teams, and solid running games. If you look at teams that rely on the qb, Peyton Manning, Dan Marino, Tom Brady, Kurt Warner, they all won super bowls only when their defense stepped up and make up for their poor play, and when they had to win by themselves, they lost. I think the Bears will shut down the run game and Aaron Rodgers will be decent, but not great. And while the Packer's defense has been great, I think it has been in large part because Rodgers has given them big leads, allowing them to play aggressively. And I think that Jay Cutler is beginning to become a better game manager, cutting down on turnovers like Romo did last year and he will take care of the ball and put up points. I think this is gonna be a low scoring, field position game, which is always to the benefit of Chicago with Devin Hester, and Chicago will win it.
Prediction: Chicago wins 23-17
New York Jets (13-5) at Pittsburgh (13-4):
Another rematch game here, one that the Jets won 22-17 a few weeks back. I really want to pick the Jets here, because they beat two great teams back to back and because I hate the Steelers, but I think this is gonna be different. Tying into what I was saying before about quarterbacks failing to win by themselves, the Patriots and Colts are two teams that fall into that category. The Patriots seemed to have a good defense, but really it seemed to be kind of a average defense that Belicheck was able to disguise and dress up during the regular season, that got exposed last week. So of course it came down to Brady, who really didn't have a run game to speak of (also dressed up by Belicheck) and the Jets planned well, and beat him. But the Steelers have a super bowl defense, without a doubt. And because of this fact Ben Rothlisberger is not going to have to press or force things to win. He will hand the ball off, and do what he does, make plays with his feet and with his arm. Its one thing to game plan against teams with passing games that rely on precision and route running, its another to game plan against a guy who stands in the pocket, shrugs off free blitzing linemen, and dances around until someone gets open. On the other side of the ball, the Jets have had success when they run the ball, and they won't be able to against the Steelers. So it will come down to Mark Sanchez. And while Sanchez has had success in the playoffs, he has never faced a defense like the Steelers and has never had to win a playoff game by himself. And if Joe Flacco can't beat the Steelers, no way Mark Sanchez does.
Prediction: Steelers win 20-6
Green Bay (12-6) at Chicago (12-5):
The rubber matchup between the NFL's oldest rivals looks to favor the Green Bay Packers. You have Aaron Rodgers playing out of his mind, a terrific defense that has been forcing turnovers going up against Jay Cutler who played a pretty good game against Seattle, but who is inconsistent and led the Bears to 3 points the last time he faced the Pack. And while even now I don't have total faith in Cutler I do have faith that the combination of the miserable footing of Soldier field and da Bearsch defense will slow the Packers offense. To me the Packers rely on Aaron Rodgers to win and in the playoffs the quarterback can not carry you by himself to a Super Bowl championship. If you look at the best playoff performances by qbs, Joe Montana in '89, Troy Aikman in '92, and Steve Young in '94, all three had amazing teams, and solid running games. If you look at teams that rely on the qb, Peyton Manning, Dan Marino, Tom Brady, Kurt Warner, they all won super bowls only when their defense stepped up and make up for their poor play, and when they had to win by themselves, they lost. I think the Bears will shut down the run game and Aaron Rodgers will be decent, but not great. And while the Packer's defense has been great, I think it has been in large part because Rodgers has given them big leads, allowing them to play aggressively. And I think that Jay Cutler is beginning to become a better game manager, cutting down on turnovers like Romo did last year and he will take care of the ball and put up points. I think this is gonna be a low scoring, field position game, which is always to the benefit of Chicago with Devin Hester, and Chicago will win it.
Prediction: Chicago wins 23-17
New York Jets (13-5) at Pittsburgh (13-4):
Another rematch game here, one that the Jets won 22-17 a few weeks back. I really want to pick the Jets here, because they beat two great teams back to back and because I hate the Steelers, but I think this is gonna be different. Tying into what I was saying before about quarterbacks failing to win by themselves, the Patriots and Colts are two teams that fall into that category. The Patriots seemed to have a good defense, but really it seemed to be kind of a average defense that Belicheck was able to disguise and dress up during the regular season, that got exposed last week. So of course it came down to Brady, who really didn't have a run game to speak of (also dressed up by Belicheck) and the Jets planned well, and beat him. But the Steelers have a super bowl defense, without a doubt. And because of this fact Ben Rothlisberger is not going to have to press or force things to win. He will hand the ball off, and do what he does, make plays with his feet and with his arm. Its one thing to game plan against teams with passing games that rely on precision and route running, its another to game plan against a guy who stands in the pocket, shrugs off free blitzing linemen, and dances around until someone gets open. On the other side of the ball, the Jets have had success when they run the ball, and they won't be able to against the Steelers. So it will come down to Mark Sanchez. And while Sanchez has had success in the playoffs, he has never faced a defense like the Steelers and has never had to win a playoff game by himself. And if Joe Flacco can't beat the Steelers, no way Mark Sanchez does.
Prediction: Steelers win 20-6
Tuesday, January 11, 2011
Divisional round picks
So last week I went 2-2 with my predictions, coming pretty close in the score of the Baltimore game and not that close in the Green Bay game. I didn't know Matt Hasselback was going to start for Seattle so that may have changed my prediction a little in terms of the score, though I probably still would've pick New Orleans. And I underestimated the Jets running game against the Colts. Also looking back I realized my predictions were kind of lame and predictable, which saddened me. So this week I think I will go a little more for broke....
Seattle (8-9) at Chicago (11-5)
So once again Seattle is playing a team with a much better record and is expected to lose by double digits. Last week they were able to shock the defending super bowl champs, but it was in Seattle where the Seahawks have a huge advantage (its amazing how many false starts the crowd causes). Chicago has one of the best defenses in the NFL and finally has a pretty good looking offense and maybe their best quarterback since Sid Luckman. And by now you probably know Seattle's story. But I'm gonna go with Seattle even on the road and I will give you several reasons. The first is a simple mathematical equation: Matt Hasselback> Jay Cutler. I probably wouldn't have picked Seattle last week even if I knew Hasselback was playing, but I would've called it closer, because he is a good quarterback, one of the more underrated qbs of this era. And while he had a pretty bad regular season he looked about as good as I've seen any qb last week, and he has had success in the playoffs before. Jay Cutler on the other hand seems to be one of those quarterbacks that I will never believe in, no matter how good he seems at points, like Eli Manning. The guy I always compare him to is Jeff George, very talented, great arm, puts up good numbers, thinks he's the shit, but will never be as good as he or his fans think he will be. Also he's never played in a playoff game. But a big reason I like Seattle is because of their season trajectory. Now Seattle started off the season well (4-2) and then basically collapsed for the rest of the season (2-7). Now you might notice I didn't count the last game as part of the season, and thats because their game against the Rams was a playoff game for all intents and purposes: winner goes on, loser's out. But Seattle had the experience of being a bad team, THIS SEASON. They lost their last 3 games (before St Louis) by more than 2 touchdowns each, almost eliminating themselves from the playoffs. And you know a team of veterans like Hasselback, Walter Jones, Raheem Brock, and Lawer Milloy hate going through losing seasons. In fact I would argue they hate losing more than they love winning. Plus these are all guys who have been to the top and want to get back, so they suffer through basically a shitty season like they did and the last game of the season they have a chance to make the playoffs and turn a mediocre season into a success, and they have jumped at the chance. Its like the opposite of the 2007 Pats, who beat the shit out of everyone through like 10 games and then down the stretch were squeaking out every win against mediocre teams. By the time the playoffs came they were just begging for someone to beat them. I think Seattle will come out hungrier and pull off the win. Oh and they beat da bearsch during the regular season IN CHICAGO. Go figure.
Prediction: Seattle 20-13
Baltimore (12-4) at Pittsburgh (12-4)
Even though I don't know what will happen in the rest of the playoffs and which teams will end up playing, I will make the claim that this will be the best game of football in the 2011 NFL playoffs. These teams are so similar, so well matched its awesome. I think I would actually be disappointed if it didn't come down to the wire. You have two 12-4 teams with strong running games, young talented quarterbacks with playoff experience, and two of the best defenses in the NFL. Two teams that split the season series with each game being decided by a field goal. Now on paper the important matchup of quarterbacks seems to favor Pittsburgh. Rothlisberger has had a lot of success in the playoffs, and Flacco hasn't really done anything. Or at least he hadn't until last week. And that's the thing, I think the reason Baltimore can win this time is because Flacco has evolved as a passer, and also he has a plethora of receiving options, 3 solid receivers, a great receiving tight end in Todd Heap (who did not play in Pittsburgh's win over Baltimore), and one of the best receiving backs in the league in Ray Rice. Rothlisberger has a good set of receivers as well, and Mike Wallace's speed could be a deciding factor in the game. However if he's not a deep threat, he's kind of useless, and having a useless #2 receiving is not a good thing. In general I think both teams will be able to stop the run game so it will come down to which passing attack does better. And Baltimore is at the top of their game after cruising by KC, while Pittsburgh has been off for a week. I think Baltimore will get off to a lead early and hold of the Steelers.
Predictions: Baltimore 24-19
Green Bay (11-6) at Atlanta (13-3)
This is one is tough for me to call. Two teams that played each other early in the year, in Atlanta, in a game that Atlanta won by a field goal. But this is a different Packers team coming in. Fresh off a wild card victory in Philadelphia, the Packers have won 3 straight over 3 of the best teams in the NFC. If they beat Atlanta they'll probably have knocked off the 3 best teams in back to back to back weeks. The match-up between Matt Ryan and Aaron Rodgers is one I am looking forward to: two young quarterbacks that seem to be ready to take the next step to moving into the Brady, Brees, Manning talk. Part of me wants to pick the Packers: they are hot right now, Rodgers is on a roll, they have a good running back for the first time this season and their defense was good at containing Vick last week. But I will have to pick Atlanta for the simple reason that I like Matty Ice in the clutch more than Aaron Rodgers. Its not that Aaron Rodgers seems to have a problem in the clutch, but it just seems like he hasn't pulled out any particularly awesome victories in the 4th quarter while Matt Ryan did nothing but pull off awesome victories this season, including against the Packers. I foresee a similar result to the game these two teams played earlier this season.
Prediction: Atlanta: 30-28
New York (12-5) at New England (14-2)
This is the match-up with probably the most media induced intrigue and hype, despite the fact that I don't think it will be a good a football game as Pittsburgh and Baltimore. You've got the classic matchup of the good guys: The Bill Belicheck led drama-less Patriots, where every single player speaks Beli-talk, saying the most politically correct, cliche-ridden things every time up against the bad boy, Rex Ryan run Jets who outwardly hate the Patriots, and use every opportunity given by the media to emphasize that point. Unlike most people in New England I actually think there is a method behind Rex Ryan's madness and that he has his players under more control than one might think. I think all these attacks through the media are attempts to tear down the mystic of the Patriots. Saying its between himself and Belicheck takes some pressure off of Ryan's players. Antonio Cromartie calling Tom Brady an asshole is just a way of and bringing down an All-everything, superhero quarterback to just some fucking asshole who you want to beat. Of course there's no doubt the Patriots will use this a bulletin board material and will come out ready to whup the Jets worse than their last game, but the Jets will be ready, and they will not fear the mighty Patriots. The reason I thought Indianapolis would win last week was I didn't think the Jets could run the ball well enough to take pressure off Mark Sanchez. Well I was wrong, and while they might not have quite as much success this week, they will have some. But as much as I'd like to pick the Jets in this one I'm gonna have to go with the Patriots. While Antonio Cromartie is an All-pro shit talker, he's not that great a corner, and I can see Deion Branch having a field day on him. I think the Jets will do alright on offense but they'll have to shut Tom Brady down to win this one. They will probably do more of a blitzy defense than last week, and if they blitz and have Cromartie jam his man, I think they have a chance because Cromartie is good only in bump and run and everyone knows Wes Welker isn't gonna do shit on Revis island (1 reception 1 yard from Reggie Wayne, come now). In that case it would come down to the two tight ends, who are talented and mismatches but are not meant to be go to guys. But I really don't see they Jets shutting down the Pats passing attack, Brady's just too good at spreading it around and unlike the Colts the Pats have a solid running game. If the Jets win I'm gonna hate myself but I'll say:
Prediction: Patriots 28-20
Seattle (8-9) at Chicago (11-5)
So once again Seattle is playing a team with a much better record and is expected to lose by double digits. Last week they were able to shock the defending super bowl champs, but it was in Seattle where the Seahawks have a huge advantage (its amazing how many false starts the crowd causes). Chicago has one of the best defenses in the NFL and finally has a pretty good looking offense and maybe their best quarterback since Sid Luckman. And by now you probably know Seattle's story. But I'm gonna go with Seattle even on the road and I will give you several reasons. The first is a simple mathematical equation: Matt Hasselback> Jay Cutler. I probably wouldn't have picked Seattle last week even if I knew Hasselback was playing, but I would've called it closer, because he is a good quarterback, one of the more underrated qbs of this era. And while he had a pretty bad regular season he looked about as good as I've seen any qb last week, and he has had success in the playoffs before. Jay Cutler on the other hand seems to be one of those quarterbacks that I will never believe in, no matter how good he seems at points, like Eli Manning. The guy I always compare him to is Jeff George, very talented, great arm, puts up good numbers, thinks he's the shit, but will never be as good as he or his fans think he will be. Also he's never played in a playoff game. But a big reason I like Seattle is because of their season trajectory. Now Seattle started off the season well (4-2) and then basically collapsed for the rest of the season (2-7). Now you might notice I didn't count the last game as part of the season, and thats because their game against the Rams was a playoff game for all intents and purposes: winner goes on, loser's out. But Seattle had the experience of being a bad team, THIS SEASON. They lost their last 3 games (before St Louis) by more than 2 touchdowns each, almost eliminating themselves from the playoffs. And you know a team of veterans like Hasselback, Walter Jones, Raheem Brock, and Lawer Milloy hate going through losing seasons. In fact I would argue they hate losing more than they love winning. Plus these are all guys who have been to the top and want to get back, so they suffer through basically a shitty season like they did and the last game of the season they have a chance to make the playoffs and turn a mediocre season into a success, and they have jumped at the chance. Its like the opposite of the 2007 Pats, who beat the shit out of everyone through like 10 games and then down the stretch were squeaking out every win against mediocre teams. By the time the playoffs came they were just begging for someone to beat them. I think Seattle will come out hungrier and pull off the win. Oh and they beat da bearsch during the regular season IN CHICAGO. Go figure.
Prediction: Seattle 20-13
Baltimore (12-4) at Pittsburgh (12-4)
Even though I don't know what will happen in the rest of the playoffs and which teams will end up playing, I will make the claim that this will be the best game of football in the 2011 NFL playoffs. These teams are so similar, so well matched its awesome. I think I would actually be disappointed if it didn't come down to the wire. You have two 12-4 teams with strong running games, young talented quarterbacks with playoff experience, and two of the best defenses in the NFL. Two teams that split the season series with each game being decided by a field goal. Now on paper the important matchup of quarterbacks seems to favor Pittsburgh. Rothlisberger has had a lot of success in the playoffs, and Flacco hasn't really done anything. Or at least he hadn't until last week. And that's the thing, I think the reason Baltimore can win this time is because Flacco has evolved as a passer, and also he has a plethora of receiving options, 3 solid receivers, a great receiving tight end in Todd Heap (who did not play in Pittsburgh's win over Baltimore), and one of the best receiving backs in the league in Ray Rice. Rothlisberger has a good set of receivers as well, and Mike Wallace's speed could be a deciding factor in the game. However if he's not a deep threat, he's kind of useless, and having a useless #2 receiving is not a good thing. In general I think both teams will be able to stop the run game so it will come down to which passing attack does better. And Baltimore is at the top of their game after cruising by KC, while Pittsburgh has been off for a week. I think Baltimore will get off to a lead early and hold of the Steelers.
Predictions: Baltimore 24-19
Green Bay (11-6) at Atlanta (13-3)
This is one is tough for me to call. Two teams that played each other early in the year, in Atlanta, in a game that Atlanta won by a field goal. But this is a different Packers team coming in. Fresh off a wild card victory in Philadelphia, the Packers have won 3 straight over 3 of the best teams in the NFC. If they beat Atlanta they'll probably have knocked off the 3 best teams in back to back to back weeks. The match-up between Matt Ryan and Aaron Rodgers is one I am looking forward to: two young quarterbacks that seem to be ready to take the next step to moving into the Brady, Brees, Manning talk. Part of me wants to pick the Packers: they are hot right now, Rodgers is on a roll, they have a good running back for the first time this season and their defense was good at containing Vick last week. But I will have to pick Atlanta for the simple reason that I like Matty Ice in the clutch more than Aaron Rodgers. Its not that Aaron Rodgers seems to have a problem in the clutch, but it just seems like he hasn't pulled out any particularly awesome victories in the 4th quarter while Matt Ryan did nothing but pull off awesome victories this season, including against the Packers. I foresee a similar result to the game these two teams played earlier this season.
Prediction: Atlanta: 30-28
New York (12-5) at New England (14-2)
This is the match-up with probably the most media induced intrigue and hype, despite the fact that I don't think it will be a good a football game as Pittsburgh and Baltimore. You've got the classic matchup of the good guys: The Bill Belicheck led drama-less Patriots, where every single player speaks Beli-talk, saying the most politically correct, cliche-ridden things every time up against the bad boy, Rex Ryan run Jets who outwardly hate the Patriots, and use every opportunity given by the media to emphasize that point. Unlike most people in New England I actually think there is a method behind Rex Ryan's madness and that he has his players under more control than one might think. I think all these attacks through the media are attempts to tear down the mystic of the Patriots. Saying its between himself and Belicheck takes some pressure off of Ryan's players. Antonio Cromartie calling Tom Brady an asshole is just a way of and bringing down an All-everything, superhero quarterback to just some fucking asshole who you want to beat. Of course there's no doubt the Patriots will use this a bulletin board material and will come out ready to whup the Jets worse than their last game, but the Jets will be ready, and they will not fear the mighty Patriots. The reason I thought Indianapolis would win last week was I didn't think the Jets could run the ball well enough to take pressure off Mark Sanchez. Well I was wrong, and while they might not have quite as much success this week, they will have some. But as much as I'd like to pick the Jets in this one I'm gonna have to go with the Patriots. While Antonio Cromartie is an All-pro shit talker, he's not that great a corner, and I can see Deion Branch having a field day on him. I think the Jets will do alright on offense but they'll have to shut Tom Brady down to win this one. They will probably do more of a blitzy defense than last week, and if they blitz and have Cromartie jam his man, I think they have a chance because Cromartie is good only in bump and run and everyone knows Wes Welker isn't gonna do shit on Revis island (1 reception 1 yard from Reggie Wayne, come now). In that case it would come down to the two tight ends, who are talented and mismatches but are not meant to be go to guys. But I really don't see they Jets shutting down the Pats passing attack, Brady's just too good at spreading it around and unlike the Colts the Pats have a solid running game. If the Jets win I'm gonna hate myself but I'll say:
Prediction: Patriots 28-20
Friday, January 7, 2011
Wild card weekend: predictions
So it is now playoff time, so it is time for some predictions for the first round. My prediction of the cowboys making the playoffs was a tad off, I was right that we'd play better, that the redskins would fail and the giants collapsing (though not the way I guessed) and off on the Eagles. And to be honest most of my predictions for NFL games tend to be off, whether during the playoffs, season or super bowl. But I'm still going to give my two cents just because I want to. So heres what I think about the early matchups:
New Orleans (11-5) at Seattle (7-9):
On paper this looks like an obvious one. You have the defending super bowl champion playing against the worst playoff team in NFL history (record wise but quite possibly talent wise too). This is one where I would love to pick an upset, the Saints lost their last game, they could be looking ahead to the Divisional round, and could take Seattle lightly, whereas Seattle probably realizes they are incredibly lucky just to be in the playoffs and is going to be playing loose and with nothing to lose. However I can't pick against Drew Brees against a team like Seattle. But I will say this, if Seattle manages to keep it close early on, their home field advantage could play a role. You could tell last week they fed off their fans, and if New Orleans doesn't put them away early they could be in for a dogfight. But all 9 of Seattle's losses have been by more than 15 points, including one to New Orleans. And I see this one going somewhat in the same direction, with the Saints jumping out to an early lead and the Seattle offense not being able to bring them back.
Prediction: Saints win 31-14
New York Jets (11-5) at Indianapolis (10-6):
The rematch of last year's AFC Championship game has a much different feel than last year's game. Last year the Jets came in win one of the most dominant defenses in the league and Peyton Manning came in after a typically awesome Peyton Manning year and leading a 14-2 Indianapolis squad. While record-wise the Jets are better this year and they do seem to have improved offensively, they are an inconsistent team and their are much more holes in their defense. On one hand they've had impressive victories early on against the Patriots (despite losing Darelle Revis) and a few weeks ago against the Steelers. But then there was the infamous shellacking to the Patriots the second time around and a loss to Chicago two weeks ago where the defense gave up 38 points. The Colts come in winners of 4 straight and as division champion, and Peyton with statistically another stellar season, but there are also more flaws in the 2010 addition of the Indy Colts. There last 4 games have all been close to teams like tennessee and oakland despite the fact that they have all been must wins. And while Peyton's main stats look solid, under the surface he has had a difficult year. While last year the colts had little running game, this year they had even less of it, with Peyton having to throw the ball 679 times, 13 short of the record, and over 42 times a game. Just by that you can see how it would be hard to win games, even with Peyton Manning, when the defense knows you will throw the ball that often. Early in the season Manning lost his leading receiver from last year (Dallas Clark) and he lost his number 3 receiver, Austin Collie for 7 games. Also, Manning's average yard per attempt was the lowest since his rookie year, and his average yard per completion was his lowest ever. While this many seem irrelevant, these number suggest that the Colts have had a harder time getting yardage when they throw the ball, which can be frustrating especially to a player as good as Manning who is used to picking yards in bunches when he puts the ball in the air. Because of the inconsistencies of both teams, it is hard to pick this one. The Colts are vulnerable on defense and Peyton Manning seems suddenly beatable. Plus there's the fact that all super bowl losers decline severely the next year (at least in the last 12 years or so). But the Jets just don't do it for me. Mark Sanchez still is an average quarterback at best, and their running game is pretty bad. Besides Joe McKnight's incredible performance in mop-up duty last week, they haven't had a 100 yard back since week 5. Plus Peyton really does seem to consistently dominate some teams or coordinators and suck against others, and Rex Ryan is one that he does well against. So as much as I don't want to, I will go with the Colts:
Prediction: Colts win 21-10
Baltimore Ravens (12-4) at Kansas City (10-6)
Here's a game that pits the new guys on the block Chiefs against the playoff regular Ravens. The Chief easily the most surprising team to make the playoffs in the AFC, winning the division with the NFL's top running attack, solid play from quarterback Matt Cassel and great production from receiver Dwayne Bowe. The Ravens come in with a more balanced team than last year, with 3rd year QB Joe Flacco starting to come into his own with a improved receiving core, a solid run game with ray rice and as usual a dominating defense. In this one I think its important to look at both teams schedules. Baltimore lost 4 games, 3 of which were to New England, Pittsburgh, and Atlanta (arguable the 3 best teams in the NFL) by a combination of 11 points. They also beat playoff teams New Orleans, New York, and Pittsburgh. Kansas City on the other hand, played only two playoff teams, losing to Indianapolis and defeating Seattle and finishing the season by getting crushed by Oakland 31-10 in a game that would've given them the 3 seed. I think the only way to beat the Ravens is to throw the ball on them, which I don't think the Chiefs will be able to do, because while Matt Cassel has had an impressive season, that has been against weaker opponents who haven't been able to stop the Chiefs running game. Baltimore will be able to hold the Chiefs running game and check and make Cassel beat them. And while the Chiefs defense is probably underrated, they will not be able to win a defensive struggle with the battle tested Ravens. But as with Seattle, it is important to take home field advantage into account, and once again, if the Chiefs can get out to a good start they will have a chance. But I just can't see Cassel picking apart the Ravens.
Prediction: Ravens win 24-7
Green Bay Packers (10-6) at Philadelphia Eagles (10-6)
This is probably the game I will be most interested in on wildcard weekend. It features two teams heading into the playoffs seemingly going in opposite directions, the Eagles losing two straight games to underachieving teams (the vikings and the COWBOYS YEE YEE), while the Packers come in having won two straight against quality opponents (the Giants and the Bears). And despite a slew of major injuries the Packers come into the playoffs as one of the hottest teams while the Eagles come in with a lot of question marks. The number one question mark has been the offensive line, which left Michael Vick and Kevin Kolb
to be pummeled the last two weeks. When these teams met in week one the Packers knocked out Kevin Kolb (which turned out pretty well for philly) and sacked Kolb and Vick 6 times. I see no reason why they shouldn't be able to get pressure on Vick this game. And while Vick may still be able to manufacture offense, I don't think he'll be able to keep up with the Packer's powerful offense which should have little problem scoring points against a Eagles defense that gives up 23 points a game.
Prediction: Packers win 35-24
New Orleans (11-5) at Seattle (7-9):
On paper this looks like an obvious one. You have the defending super bowl champion playing against the worst playoff team in NFL history (record wise but quite possibly talent wise too). This is one where I would love to pick an upset, the Saints lost their last game, they could be looking ahead to the Divisional round, and could take Seattle lightly, whereas Seattle probably realizes they are incredibly lucky just to be in the playoffs and is going to be playing loose and with nothing to lose. However I can't pick against Drew Brees against a team like Seattle. But I will say this, if Seattle manages to keep it close early on, their home field advantage could play a role. You could tell last week they fed off their fans, and if New Orleans doesn't put them away early they could be in for a dogfight. But all 9 of Seattle's losses have been by more than 15 points, including one to New Orleans. And I see this one going somewhat in the same direction, with the Saints jumping out to an early lead and the Seattle offense not being able to bring them back.
Prediction: Saints win 31-14
New York Jets (11-5) at Indianapolis (10-6):
The rematch of last year's AFC Championship game has a much different feel than last year's game. Last year the Jets came in win one of the most dominant defenses in the league and Peyton Manning came in after a typically awesome Peyton Manning year and leading a 14-2 Indianapolis squad. While record-wise the Jets are better this year and they do seem to have improved offensively, they are an inconsistent team and their are much more holes in their defense. On one hand they've had impressive victories early on against the Patriots (despite losing Darelle Revis) and a few weeks ago against the Steelers. But then there was the infamous shellacking to the Patriots the second time around and a loss to Chicago two weeks ago where the defense gave up 38 points. The Colts come in winners of 4 straight and as division champion, and Peyton with statistically another stellar season, but there are also more flaws in the 2010 addition of the Indy Colts. There last 4 games have all been close to teams like tennessee and oakland despite the fact that they have all been must wins. And while Peyton's main stats look solid, under the surface he has had a difficult year. While last year the colts had little running game, this year they had even less of it, with Peyton having to throw the ball 679 times, 13 short of the record, and over 42 times a game. Just by that you can see how it would be hard to win games, even with Peyton Manning, when the defense knows you will throw the ball that often. Early in the season Manning lost his leading receiver from last year (Dallas Clark) and he lost his number 3 receiver, Austin Collie for 7 games. Also, Manning's average yard per attempt was the lowest since his rookie year, and his average yard per completion was his lowest ever. While this many seem irrelevant, these number suggest that the Colts have had a harder time getting yardage when they throw the ball, which can be frustrating especially to a player as good as Manning who is used to picking yards in bunches when he puts the ball in the air. Because of the inconsistencies of both teams, it is hard to pick this one. The Colts are vulnerable on defense and Peyton Manning seems suddenly beatable. Plus there's the fact that all super bowl losers decline severely the next year (at least in the last 12 years or so). But the Jets just don't do it for me. Mark Sanchez still is an average quarterback at best, and their running game is pretty bad. Besides Joe McKnight's incredible performance in mop-up duty last week, they haven't had a 100 yard back since week 5. Plus Peyton really does seem to consistently dominate some teams or coordinators and suck against others, and Rex Ryan is one that he does well against. So as much as I don't want to, I will go with the Colts:
Prediction: Colts win 21-10
Baltimore Ravens (12-4) at Kansas City (10-6)
Here's a game that pits the new guys on the block Chiefs against the playoff regular Ravens. The Chief easily the most surprising team to make the playoffs in the AFC, winning the division with the NFL's top running attack, solid play from quarterback Matt Cassel and great production from receiver Dwayne Bowe. The Ravens come in with a more balanced team than last year, with 3rd year QB Joe Flacco starting to come into his own with a improved receiving core, a solid run game with ray rice and as usual a dominating defense. In this one I think its important to look at both teams schedules. Baltimore lost 4 games, 3 of which were to New England, Pittsburgh, and Atlanta (arguable the 3 best teams in the NFL) by a combination of 11 points. They also beat playoff teams New Orleans, New York, and Pittsburgh. Kansas City on the other hand, played only two playoff teams, losing to Indianapolis and defeating Seattle and finishing the season by getting crushed by Oakland 31-10 in a game that would've given them the 3 seed. I think the only way to beat the Ravens is to throw the ball on them, which I don't think the Chiefs will be able to do, because while Matt Cassel has had an impressive season, that has been against weaker opponents who haven't been able to stop the Chiefs running game. Baltimore will be able to hold the Chiefs running game and check and make Cassel beat them. And while the Chiefs defense is probably underrated, they will not be able to win a defensive struggle with the battle tested Ravens. But as with Seattle, it is important to take home field advantage into account, and once again, if the Chiefs can get out to a good start they will have a chance. But I just can't see Cassel picking apart the Ravens.
Prediction: Ravens win 24-7
Green Bay Packers (10-6) at Philadelphia Eagles (10-6)
This is probably the game I will be most interested in on wildcard weekend. It features two teams heading into the playoffs seemingly going in opposite directions, the Eagles losing two straight games to underachieving teams (the vikings and the COWBOYS YEE YEE), while the Packers come in having won two straight against quality opponents (the Giants and the Bears). And despite a slew of major injuries the Packers come into the playoffs as one of the hottest teams while the Eagles come in with a lot of question marks. The number one question mark has been the offensive line, which left Michael Vick and Kevin Kolb
to be pummeled the last two weeks. When these teams met in week one the Packers knocked out Kevin Kolb (which turned out pretty well for philly) and sacked Kolb and Vick 6 times. I see no reason why they shouldn't be able to get pressure on Vick this game. And while Vick may still be able to manufacture offense, I don't think he'll be able to keep up with the Packer's powerful offense which should have little problem scoring points against a Eagles defense that gives up 23 points a game.
Prediction: Packers win 35-24
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