Wild card weekend: predictions

So it is now playoff time, so it is time for some predictions for the first round. My prediction of the cowboys making the playoffs was a tad off, I was right that we'd play better, that the redskins would fail and the giants collapsing (though not the way I guessed) and off on the Eagles. And to be honest most of my predictions for NFL games tend to be off, whether during the playoffs, season or super bowl. But I'm still going to give my two cents just because I want to. So heres what I think about the early matchups:

New Orleans (11-5) at Seattle (7-9):
On paper this looks like an obvious one. You have the defending super bowl champion playing against the worst playoff team in NFL history (record wise but quite possibly talent wise too). This is one where I would love to pick an upset, the Saints lost their last game, they could be looking ahead to the Divisional round, and could take Seattle lightly, whereas Seattle probably realizes they are incredibly lucky just to be in the playoffs and is going to be playing loose and with nothing to lose. However I can't pick against Drew Brees against a team like Seattle. But I will say this, if Seattle manages to keep it close early on, their home field advantage could play a role. You could tell last week they fed off their fans, and if New Orleans doesn't put them away early they could be in for a dogfight. But all 9 of Seattle's losses have been by more than 15 points, including one to New Orleans. And I see this one going somewhat in the same direction, with the Saints jumping out to an early lead and the Seattle offense not being able to bring them back.

Prediction: Saints win 31-14


New York Jets (11-5) at Indianapolis (10-6):
The rematch of last year's AFC Championship game has a much different feel than last year's game. Last year the Jets came in win one of the most dominant defenses in the league and Peyton Manning came in after a typically awesome Peyton Manning year and leading a 14-2 Indianapolis squad. While record-wise the Jets are better this year and they do seem to have improved offensively, they are an inconsistent team and their are much more holes in their defense. On one hand they've had impressive victories early on against the Patriots (despite losing Darelle Revis) and a few weeks ago against the Steelers. But then there was the infamous shellacking to the Patriots the second time around and a loss to Chicago two weeks ago where the defense gave up 38 points. The Colts come in winners of 4 straight and as division champion, and Peyton with statistically another stellar season, but there are also more flaws in the 2010 addition of the Indy Colts. There last 4 games have all been close to teams like tennessee and oakland despite the fact that they have all been must wins. And while Peyton's main stats look solid, under the surface he has had a difficult year. While last year the colts had little running game, this year they had even less of it, with Peyton having to throw the ball 679 times, 13 short of the record, and over 42 times a game. Just by that you can see how it would be hard to win games, even with Peyton Manning, when the defense knows you will throw the ball that often. Early in the season Manning lost his leading receiver from last year (Dallas Clark) and he lost his number 3 receiver, Austin Collie for 7 games. Also, Manning's average yard per attempt was the lowest since his rookie year, and his average yard per completion was his lowest ever. While this many seem irrelevant, these number suggest that the Colts have had a harder time getting yardage when they throw the ball, which can be frustrating especially to a player as good as Manning who is used to picking yards in bunches when he puts the ball in the air. Because of the inconsistencies of both teams, it is hard to pick this one. The Colts are vulnerable on defense and Peyton Manning seems suddenly beatable. Plus there's the fact that all super bowl losers decline severely the next year (at least in the last 12 years or so). But the Jets just don't do it for me. Mark Sanchez still is an average quarterback at best, and their running game is pretty bad. Besides Joe McKnight's incredible performance in mop-up duty last week, they haven't had a 100 yard back since week 5. Plus Peyton really does seem to consistently dominate some teams or coordinators and suck against others, and Rex Ryan is one that he does well against. So as much as I don't want to, I will go with the Colts:

Prediction: Colts win 21-10

Baltimore Ravens (12-4) at Kansas City (10-6)
Here's a game that pits the new guys on the block Chiefs against the playoff regular Ravens. The Chief easily the most surprising team to make the playoffs in the AFC, winning the division with the NFL's top running attack, solid play from quarterback Matt Cassel and great production from receiver Dwayne Bowe. The Ravens come in with a more balanced team than last year, with 3rd year QB Joe Flacco starting to come into his own with a improved receiving core, a solid run game with ray rice and as usual a dominating defense. In this one I think its important to look at both teams schedules. Baltimore lost 4 games, 3 of which were to New England, Pittsburgh, and Atlanta (arguable the 3 best teams in the NFL) by a combination of 11 points. They also beat playoff teams New Orleans, New York, and Pittsburgh. Kansas City on the other hand, played only two playoff teams, losing to Indianapolis and defeating Seattle and finishing the season by getting crushed by Oakland 31-10 in a game that would've given them the 3 seed. I think the only way to beat the Ravens is to throw the ball on them, which I don't think the Chiefs will be able to do, because while Matt Cassel has had an impressive season, that has been against weaker opponents who haven't been able to stop the Chiefs running game. Baltimore will be able to hold the Chiefs running game and check and make Cassel beat them. And while the Chiefs defense is probably underrated, they will not be able to win a defensive struggle with the battle tested Ravens. But as with Seattle, it is important to take home field advantage into account, and once again, if the Chiefs can get out to a good start they will have a chance. But I just can't see Cassel picking apart the Ravens.

Prediction: Ravens win 24-7

Green Bay Packers (10-6) at Philadelphia Eagles (10-6)
This is probably the game I will be most interested in on wildcard weekend. It features two teams heading into the playoffs seemingly going in opposite directions, the Eagles losing two straight games to underachieving teams (the vikings and the COWBOYS YEE YEE), while the Packers come in having won two straight against quality opponents (the Giants and the Bears). And despite a slew of major injuries the Packers come into the playoffs as one of the hottest teams while the Eagles come in with a lot of question marks. The number one question mark has been the offensive line, which left Michael Vick and Kevin Kolb
to be pummeled the last two weeks. When these teams met in week one the Packers knocked out Kevin Kolb (which turned out pretty well for philly) and sacked Kolb and Vick 6 times. I see no reason why they shouldn't be able to get pressure on Vick this game. And while Vick may still be able to manufacture offense, I don't think he'll be able to keep up with the Packer's powerful offense which should have little problem scoring points against a Eagles defense that gives up 23 points a game.

Prediction: Packers win 35-24