So after a postseason of terrible picks, I finally came close to calling one perfectly in the super bowl. I was one Pittsburgh miscue on 3rd down (the play they got their 3rd touchdown of the game) and a Shaun Suisham field goal away from being spot on with the score, but I came close at least. As I expected, and as they have all postseason, the Packers came out throwing, and came out scoring, going up 21-3. And while part of me was hoping they could just utterly demolish the Steelers, I knew Pittsburgh was too good to go down without a fight. So of course they came back cutting it to 21-17 and moving the ball. Then two huge plays happened that turned the game back around. First, off a play action where once again he had all day to throw, Rothlisberger overthrew speedster Mike Wallace, who had beaten his man and would've had a touchdown. Then soon after that, to start the 4th quarter I believe, Clay Matthews drilled Rashard Mendenhall perfectly to force a fumble that gave the Packers the ball. After that, Rodgers continued to gouge the Steeler defense, despite numerous drops from receivers, hitting Jordy Nelson on a big 3rd down play, and "I put the team on my back tho" for the touchdown. From then on the Packers were able to withstand a Pittsburgh rally, ending with a 4th down incompletion. Great game by Rodgers, as anyone could see he should have had better numbers, anyone who says Jordy Nelson deserved MVP should be reminded that he could've had 200 yards if he caught all three of the balls that hit his hands/chest and bounced off. While he was sacked by James Fucking Harrison (first team all-pro despite 4.5 less sacks than d-ware, I call bullshit), in general the Packers line was great, especially since they threw it over 75% of the time, like I hoped they would. On offense, Rothlisberger did his thing, but the Packers did theirs too, picking him off twice. And because of the early lead, the Pittsburgh running game was not much of a factor.
In general what I take from this game is that Aaron Rodgers is an awesome quarterback and the Packers will be a force to be reckoned with for years to come. I thought they would lose to Chicago because I knew Rodgers would have a bad game and didn't think the defense could win it, but they also have a terrific defense, great secondary and pass rush (take notes on how their d-linemen get pressure Rob Ryan). Also its a very young team, and lets not forget they get Ryan Grant and Jermichael Finley back next year, which is going to make that offense ridiculous. It may be a little early to call, the Cowboys have a lot of offseason work, but if all goes to plan and the 'Boys play the way I know they can, we could be seeing a return to Cowboys stadium come playoff time next year. On the other side of things, I think the only thing that made me happier than the Steelers losing a super bowl in our home stadium, was the fact that EVERY SUPER BOWL LOSER SUCKS THE NEXT YEAR. Thats not entirely true, but since the 2000 super bowl the Titans lost and came back 13-3 (although they lost in the divisional round), every team that has lost has collapsed the next year. The most notorious were: the Rams losing to New England and after 3 years of total dominace, going like 6-10 the next year, the Raiders losing to Tampa Bay and I don't think they've gone .500 since, the Eagles losing to the Pats and missing the playoffs the next year. And more recently, you look at two teams that totally dominated the 00s, the Patriots and the Colts, who didn't completely suck the year after but by their standards they did, with the Patriots missing the playoffs and the Colts barely winning the division and getting bounced in wild-card weekend this year. And while I'm not as well versed in college football history, the last two National Championship losers, OU and The University of Texas at Austin did terrible the next season. So, while the Steelers of Pittsburgh and their fans may expect to return to the Super Bowl next year, as an outside observer I would not count on it.
Monday, February 7, 2011
Sunday, February 6, 2011
Super Bowl Picks
So after splitting my picks for the championships I am now 3-7 in my predictions for the 2011 playoffs. And while so far my predictions have been off, I think that I now know enough to make an accurate prediction for this game. Plus I'm due.
Super Bowl XLV: Pittsburgh vs Green Bay
Two of the most storied franchises in NFL history meet in Dallas for this year's installment of the super bowl. You have a team in Pittsburgh that won 2 of the last 5 super bowls, and Green Bay who has like 2 players who ever played in a super bowl. And if you look back, teams that win a couple super bowls tend to keep winning when they return. The steelers in the 70s, 49ers in the 80s, cowboys in the 90s all never lost. But New England may have set a new trend by losing in '07 after winning 3 super bowls. And I think the steelers will follow a similar path with today's game. Looking back at last week, I was actually right about the packers, I expected Rodgers to suck it up in an outdoor game, and like I said before, teams never win solely on quarterback play. But I underestimated the packers defense, and vastly underestimated Jay Culter's propensity to suck in big games and be a pussy. After really 5 playoff games (the Giants and Bears in the regular season were essentially playoff games) I'm sold on the Packer's D. And while I think Pittsburgh presents different challenges than any other offense the Packers faced so far, namely Rothliberger's ability to extend plays, I don't think they are better than the Eagles or Falcons offensively, two teams the Packer's contained. The key will be how Green Bay stops Mendenhall, because without the play-action at their disposal, the Steelers will not be able to throw against the Packers, they have a pretty phenomenal secondary and a great pass rush, that gets pressure from all over. On the other side of the ball, simply put the Steelers are a great defense and the packers are a talented offense. But while the Steelers are inpenetrable against the run, and the pass rush is great, their secondary can be exploited when isolated. Specifically, their corner's can be taken advantage of. So if the Packers just go all out, just throwing the ball from the gate, specifically throwing a lot of quick passes to minimize pass rush and take advantage of Rodger's pinpoint accuracy. The should run every once and a while just to keep the Steelers honest, but for the most part they should pass. And I think they will, because last time these teams played the Packers put it up 52 times I believe and they scored a lot. Last week the Jets were able to come back and almost knock off the Steelers because they could throw the ball on them. If your defense is getting burned by the Mark Sanchez-led Jets, you're probably gonna get scorched by the Packers. I see the Pack putting it up early and often, and Rodgers, back in the dome, will be on his game and move the ball consistently on the Steelers. And while Rothlisberger has his moments and I think Mendenhall will do well enough to set up play-action, the Packer's great secondary and pass rush will slow down the Steelers enough to get the win.
Prediction: Packers win 31-20
Super Bowl XLV: Pittsburgh vs Green Bay
Two of the most storied franchises in NFL history meet in Dallas for this year's installment of the super bowl. You have a team in Pittsburgh that won 2 of the last 5 super bowls, and Green Bay who has like 2 players who ever played in a super bowl. And if you look back, teams that win a couple super bowls tend to keep winning when they return. The steelers in the 70s, 49ers in the 80s, cowboys in the 90s all never lost. But New England may have set a new trend by losing in '07 after winning 3 super bowls. And I think the steelers will follow a similar path with today's game. Looking back at last week, I was actually right about the packers, I expected Rodgers to suck it up in an outdoor game, and like I said before, teams never win solely on quarterback play. But I underestimated the packers defense, and vastly underestimated Jay Culter's propensity to suck in big games and be a pussy. After really 5 playoff games (the Giants and Bears in the regular season were essentially playoff games) I'm sold on the Packer's D. And while I think Pittsburgh presents different challenges than any other offense the Packers faced so far, namely Rothliberger's ability to extend plays, I don't think they are better than the Eagles or Falcons offensively, two teams the Packer's contained. The key will be how Green Bay stops Mendenhall, because without the play-action at their disposal, the Steelers will not be able to throw against the Packers, they have a pretty phenomenal secondary and a great pass rush, that gets pressure from all over. On the other side of the ball, simply put the Steelers are a great defense and the packers are a talented offense. But while the Steelers are inpenetrable against the run, and the pass rush is great, their secondary can be exploited when isolated. Specifically, their corner's can be taken advantage of. So if the Packers just go all out, just throwing the ball from the gate, specifically throwing a lot of quick passes to minimize pass rush and take advantage of Rodger's pinpoint accuracy. The should run every once and a while just to keep the Steelers honest, but for the most part they should pass. And I think they will, because last time these teams played the Packers put it up 52 times I believe and they scored a lot. Last week the Jets were able to come back and almost knock off the Steelers because they could throw the ball on them. If your defense is getting burned by the Mark Sanchez-led Jets, you're probably gonna get scorched by the Packers. I see the Pack putting it up early and often, and Rodgers, back in the dome, will be on his game and move the ball consistently on the Steelers. And while Rothlisberger has his moments and I think Mendenhall will do well enough to set up play-action, the Packer's great secondary and pass rush will slow down the Steelers enough to get the win.
Prediction: Packers win 31-20
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