Divisional round picks

So last week I went 2-2 with my predictions, coming pretty close in the score of the Baltimore game and not that close in the Green Bay game. I didn't know Matt Hasselback was going to start for Seattle so that may have changed my prediction a little in terms of the score, though I probably still would've pick New Orleans. And I underestimated the Jets running game against the Colts. Also looking back I realized my predictions were kind of lame and predictable, which saddened me. So this week I think I will go a little more for broke....

Seattle (8-9) at Chicago (11-5)

So once again Seattle is playing a team with a much better record and is expected to lose by double digits. Last week they were able to shock the defending super bowl champs, but it was in Seattle where the Seahawks have a huge advantage (its amazing how many false starts the crowd causes). Chicago has one of the best defenses in the NFL and finally has a pretty good looking offense and maybe their best quarterback since Sid Luckman. And by now you probably know Seattle's story. But I'm gonna go with Seattle even on the road and I will give you several reasons. The first is a simple mathematical equation: Matt Hasselback> Jay Cutler. I probably wouldn't have picked Seattle last week even if I knew Hasselback was playing, but I would've called it closer, because he is a good quarterback, one of the more underrated qbs of this era. And while he had a pretty bad regular season he looked about as good as I've seen any qb last week, and he has had success in the playoffs before. Jay Cutler on the other hand seems to be one of those quarterbacks that I will never believe in, no matter how good he seems at points, like Eli Manning. The guy I always compare him to is Jeff George, very talented, great arm, puts up good numbers, thinks he's the shit, but will never be as good as he or his fans think he will be. Also he's never played in a playoff game. But a big reason I like Seattle is because of their season trajectory. Now Seattle started off the season well (4-2) and then basically collapsed for the rest of the season (2-7). Now you might notice I didn't count the last game as part of the season, and thats because their game against the Rams was a playoff game for all intents and purposes: winner goes on, loser's out. But Seattle had the experience of being a bad team, THIS SEASON. They lost their last 3 games (before St Louis) by more than 2 touchdowns each, almost eliminating themselves from the playoffs. And you know a team of veterans like Hasselback, Walter Jones, Raheem Brock, and Lawer Milloy hate going through losing seasons. In fact I would argue they hate losing more than they love winning. Plus these are all guys who have been to the top and want to get back, so they suffer through basically a shitty season like they did and the last game of the season they have a chance to make the playoffs and turn a mediocre season into a success, and they have jumped at the chance. Its like the opposite of the 2007 Pats, who beat the shit out of everyone through like 10 games and then down the stretch were squeaking out every win against mediocre teams. By the time the playoffs came they were just begging for someone to beat them. I think Seattle will come out hungrier and pull off the win. Oh and they beat da bearsch during the regular season IN CHICAGO. Go figure.

Prediction: Seattle 20-13

Baltimore (12-4) at Pittsburgh (12-4)

Even though I don't know what will happen in the rest of the playoffs and which teams will end up playing, I will make the claim that this will be the best game of football in the 2011 NFL playoffs. These teams are so similar, so well matched its awesome. I think I would actually be disappointed if it didn't come down to the wire. You have two 12-4 teams with strong running games, young talented quarterbacks with playoff experience, and two of the best defenses in the NFL. Two teams that split the season series with each game being decided by a field goal. Now on paper the important matchup of quarterbacks seems to favor Pittsburgh. Rothlisberger has had a lot of success in the playoffs, and Flacco hasn't really done anything. Or at least he hadn't until last week. And that's the thing, I think the reason Baltimore can win this time is because Flacco has evolved as a passer, and also he has a plethora of receiving options, 3 solid receivers, a great receiving tight end in Todd Heap (who did not play in Pittsburgh's win over Baltimore), and one of the best receiving backs in the league in Ray Rice. Rothlisberger has a good set of receivers as well, and Mike Wallace's speed could be a deciding factor in the game. However if he's not a deep threat, he's kind of useless, and having a useless #2 receiving is not a good thing. In general I think both teams will be able to stop the run game so it will come down to which passing attack does better. And Baltimore is at the top of their game after cruising by KC, while Pittsburgh has been off for a week. I think Baltimore will get off to a lead early and hold of the Steelers.

Predictions: Baltimore 24-19

Green Bay (11-6) at Atlanta (13-3)
This is one is tough for me to call. Two teams that played each other early in the year, in Atlanta, in a game that Atlanta won by a field goal. But this is a different Packers team coming in. Fresh off a wild card victory in Philadelphia, the Packers have won 3 straight over 3 of the best teams in the NFC. If they beat Atlanta they'll probably have knocked off the 3 best teams in back to back to back weeks. The match-up between Matt Ryan and Aaron Rodgers is one I am looking forward to: two young quarterbacks that seem to be ready to take the next step to moving into the Brady, Brees, Manning talk. Part of me wants to pick the Packers: they are hot right now, Rodgers is on a roll, they have a good running back for the first time this season and their defense was good at containing Vick last week. But I will have to pick Atlanta for the simple reason that I like Matty Ice in the clutch more than Aaron Rodgers. Its not that Aaron Rodgers seems to have a problem in the clutch, but it just seems like he hasn't pulled out any particularly awesome victories in the 4th quarter while Matt Ryan did nothing but pull off awesome victories this season, including against the Packers. I foresee a similar result to the game these two teams played earlier this season.

Prediction: Atlanta: 30-28

New York (12-5) at New England (14-2)

This is the match-up with probably the most media induced intrigue and hype, despite the fact that I don't think it will be a good a football game as Pittsburgh and Baltimore. You've got the classic matchup of the good guys: The Bill Belicheck led drama-less Patriots, where every single player speaks Beli-talk, saying the most politically correct, cliche-ridden things every time up against the bad boy, Rex Ryan run Jets who outwardly hate the Patriots, and use every opportunity given by the media to emphasize that point. Unlike most people in New England I actually think there is a method behind Rex Ryan's madness and that he has his players under more control than one might think. I think all these attacks through the media are attempts to tear down the mystic of the Patriots. Saying its between himself and Belicheck takes some pressure off of Ryan's players. Antonio Cromartie calling Tom Brady an asshole is just a way of and bringing down an All-everything, superhero quarterback to just some fucking asshole who you want to beat. Of course there's no doubt the Patriots will use this a bulletin board material and will come out ready to whup the Jets worse than their last game, but the Jets will be ready, and they will not fear the mighty Patriots. The reason I thought Indianapolis would win last week was I didn't think the Jets could run the ball well enough to take pressure off Mark Sanchez. Well I was wrong, and while they might not have quite as much success this week, they will have some. But as much as I'd like to pick the Jets in this one I'm gonna have to go with the Patriots. While Antonio Cromartie is an All-pro shit talker, he's not that great a corner, and I can see Deion Branch having a field day on him. I think the Jets will do alright on offense but they'll have to shut Tom Brady down to win this one. They will probably do more of a blitzy defense than last week, and if they blitz and have Cromartie jam his man, I think they have a chance because Cromartie is good only in bump and run and everyone knows Wes Welker isn't gonna do shit on Revis island (1 reception 1 yard from Reggie Wayne, come now). In that case it would come down to the two tight ends, who are talented and mismatches but are not meant to be go to guys. But I really don't see they Jets shutting down the Pats passing attack, Brady's just too good at spreading it around and unlike the Colts the Pats have a solid running game. If the Jets win I'm gonna hate myself but I'll say:

Prediction: Patriots 28-20