Super Bowl Picks

So after splitting my picks for the championships I am now 3-7 in my predictions for the 2011 playoffs. And while so far my predictions have been off, I think that I now know enough to make an accurate prediction for this game. Plus I'm due.

Super Bowl XLV: Pittsburgh vs Green Bay

Two of the most storied franchises in NFL history meet in Dallas for this year's installment of the super bowl. You have a team in Pittsburgh that won 2 of the last 5 super bowls, and Green Bay who has like 2 players who ever played in a super bowl. And if you look back, teams that win a couple super bowls tend to keep winning when they return. The steelers in the 70s, 49ers in the 80s, cowboys in the 90s all never lost. But New England may have set a new trend by losing in '07 after winning 3 super bowls. And I think the steelers will follow a similar path with today's game. Looking back at last week, I was actually right about the packers, I expected Rodgers to suck it up in an outdoor game, and like I said before, teams never win solely on quarterback play. But I underestimated the packers defense, and vastly underestimated Jay Culter's propensity to suck in big games and be a pussy. After really 5 playoff games (the Giants and Bears in the regular season were essentially playoff games) I'm sold on the Packer's D. And while I think Pittsburgh presents different challenges than any other offense the Packers faced so far, namely Rothliberger's ability to extend plays, I don't think they are better than the Eagles or Falcons offensively, two teams the Packer's contained. The key will be how Green Bay stops Mendenhall, because without the play-action at their disposal, the Steelers will not be able to throw against the Packers, they have a pretty phenomenal secondary and a great pass rush, that gets pressure from all over. On the other side of the ball, simply put the Steelers are a great defense and the packers are a talented offense. But while the Steelers are inpenetrable against the run, and the pass rush is great, their secondary can be exploited when isolated. Specifically, their corner's can be taken advantage of. So if the Packers just go all out, just throwing the ball from the gate, specifically throwing a lot of quick passes to minimize pass rush and take advantage of Rodger's pinpoint accuracy. The should run every once and a while just to keep the Steelers honest, but for the most part they should pass. And I think they will, because last time these teams played the Packers put it up 52 times I believe and they scored a lot. Last week the Jets were able to come back and almost knock off the Steelers because they could throw the ball on them. If your defense is getting burned by the Mark Sanchez-led Jets, you're probably gonna get scorched by the Packers. I see the Pack putting it up early and often, and Rodgers, back in the dome, will be on his game and move the ball consistently on the Steelers. And while Rothlisberger has his moments and I think Mendenhall will do well enough to set up play-action, the Packer's great secondary and pass rush will slow down the Steelers enough to get the win.

Prediction: Packers win 31-20